Monday, May 16, 2022

How Not To Do Nuclear Energy: "Six Years Late And 250% Over Budget..."

This is one of the most succinct arguments for small modular reactors. At present nukes are constructed as bespoke, almost one-off projects. Standardization and mass production are required for the energy transition.

From OilPrice:

  • Vogtle 3 and 4 stations are now likely to cost roughly $34 billion.
  • Nuclear power continues to fail to gain commercial respectability in the U.S.
  • The Vogtle plant is up to 10 times more expensive than alternative projects in Europe.

It has not been a good week for advocates of new nuclear power plant construction in the US. An energy cooperative in Georgia, the Municipal Energy Authority of Georgia (MEAG), announced in a recent filing that the new twin unit Vogtle 3 and 4 nuclear generating stations approaching completion in Waynesboro, Georgia were now likely to cost roughly $34 billion. MEAG, along with other electric co-ops like Oglethorpe Power and Dalton Utilities own minority stakes in the nuclear facility along with majority owner Georgia Power. The two Westinghouse design AP1000 reactors, which are now scheduled to enter commercial service in 2023, were originally estimated to cost $14 billion and enter commercial service in 2016/2017, that is, six years late and 250% over budget. And people wonder why this technology is still struggling for commercial respectability.  

As for regulators, the Georgia Public Service Commission (PSC) might sound to some like an extension of Georgia Power’s legal and accounting departments. PSC Commissioner Nichols has extolled the virtues of this wildly expensive plant on two interesting grounds. First, he cited the likelihood of a large carbon tax, which we should point out, most Republicans strongly oppose. And second, he emphasized the so-called “war on fossil fuels”. Sorry but anyone watching oil and gas stock prices lately knows the war on fossil fuels is as real as the war on Christmas. Bottom line: we would expect the Georgia PSC to disallow a token amount of the egregious cost overruns, the company will respond publicly by lamenting a grievous financial wrong, while its stock and bonds rally strongly....

....MUCH MORE
The writer goes on to praise European wind and solar costs but until the intermittency problem is solved renewables can't function as baseload.

Understanding this is the minimum level of knowledge required to sit at the table. See "Energy and Artificial Intelligence Expert Professor Sir David J.C. MacKay Has Died, Age 48"

I used to ask people who wanted to talk with me about energy if they had read Professor MacKay's book "Sustainable Energy – without the hot air" gently pointing out that they could learn more in two hours spent with him than in two days spent with me.

He even put the book online, link in the obit post, there is no excuse not to know this stuff if you want to have an informed opinion and be taken seriously in the chambers of the wise and powerful.

Or the politicians.