From the U.S. Energy Information Administration, May 2022:
....Weather patterns can affect electricity demand in the commercial and industrial sectors to a limited extent. However, in the residential sector, temperature and humidity levels are primary drivers of summer electricity demand because nearly 90% of homes in the United States use some form of air conditioning for space cooling.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts that U.S. cooling degree days, a measure of summer warmth, will be 6.5% lower in June-August 2022 than last summer. The lower expected temperatures will likely translate to less residential electricity demand this summer. We forecast U.S. residential sector retail sales of electricity during the summer of 2022 will be 2.0% lower than last summer.
In terms of the amount of electricity consumed by a typical home, we forecast electricity use per residential customer will average about 1,050 kilowatthours (kWh) per month between June and August 2022, which would be 2.9% less than the summer of 2021. This forecast decline is primarily a result of our expectation that summer weather will be milder than last year.....*****....For summer 2022, we expect that the significantly higher natural gas fuel costs will be a main driver of wholesale power prices in coming months, along with the increased difficulties experienced by U.S. power suppliers in responding to prices in recent months. Forecast electricity demand between June and August 2022 is relatively similar to the level of demand last summer. We expect summer temperatures, as reflected in the outlook for cooling degree days from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, to be slightly milder than last summer, except in Texas, which may experience slightly warmer temperatures. However, even a few days with hot weather could lead to spikes in wholesale prices if electricity supplies are strained.We forecast that average monthly wholesale electricity prices between June and August 2022 will range from $48/MWh at the Palo Verde hub in the Southwest (41% lower than last summer) to a high of $133/MWh at the ISO New England internal hub (167% higher). The forecast summer prices over $100/MWh in the northeastern regions reflect a higher probability of constrained fuel supplies causing temporary price spikes during peak demand hours....
....MUCH MORE (15 page PDF)
