Bryce Elder writing at FT Alphaville:
Markets are waking up to the possibility of a victory for far-right candidate Marine Le Pen in the 2022 French presidential elections, as are strategists. Here’s a quick wrap of what they’re thinking. The FT’s main-page coverage has all the charts, pen portraits and procedure. To summarise, there’s a first round vote this Sunday and second round on April 24. The most likely scenario going by the polls is a rerun of the 2017 second-round runoff between incumbent Emmanuel Macron and Le Pen.
Barclays offers a why:In a nutshell, the wartime leadership benefit that Macron enjoyed after the Ukraine invasion is fading now, with the campaign refocusing on domestic issues, in particular surging living costs and eroding purchasing power. Also, Macron is the incumbent, meaning all other candidates have been targeting him. Finally, the announcement of the pension reform and the so-called ‘McKinsey affair’ may have impacted his popularity.It looks tight. Second round voting intentions show Macron leading Le Pen by about 5 points. Five years ago, Macron won in a landslide of 66 per cent versus 34 per cent for Le Pen. But that was after a lively between-rounds televised debate where Macron painted Le Pen as heiress to her rabble-rouser father. This time around, Macron has a disapproval rating of around 54 per cent and has drifted rightward on security and cultural stuff, moving the Overton window towards Le Pen. Over to Nomura’s Jordan Rochester:...
....MUCH MORE
