Monday, April 25, 2022

"Inflation, Quick and Dirty"

This was the piece at Mises.org that triggered the ramble in our post immediately below.

In addition to facilitating that excursion, the writer refers to the events of Q3 - Q4 2019 when the U.S. Federal Reserve did an enormous bailout, very, very quietly. Again triggering a meander. More after the jump.

From The Mises Institute's Power and Market blog, April 22, 2022:

All of a sudden everyone is an expert on inflation. Your brother-in-law, your local paper, and even dilettantes at dubious outlets like the Washington Post or The Atlantic feel compelled to explain our current predicament. With the admitted rate of consumer inflation running somewhere around 8 percent, and the real rate much higher, even central bankers can’t hide the reality from us. So the commentariat has to explain to us why this is happening and make sure we blame the mysterious workings of capitalism for our troubles.

In other words, economics is back. Covid was a nice diversion, and Ukraine took up all the media’s oxygen for a few months. But now we must deal with the economic devastation caused both by lockdowns and two years of crazed fiscal and monetary policy. Everyday Americans, stubborn as they are, care more about rising gas and food prices than the political class would like. So they trot out Nancy Pelosi to explain how government spending actually reduces inflation and push pseudoeconomic ideas like modern monetary theory to explain why more federal spending is always the cure.

But what is really happening?

First, consider the two covid stimulus bills passed by Congress in 2020 and 2021. These pumped more than $5 trillion directly into the economy in the form of payments to government, payments to households, unemployment benefits, employer payroll loans, cash subsides to airlines and countless other industries, and a host of grab-bag earmarks which had nothing to do with covid. This new money injected itself straight into the veins of the daily economy.

Second, supply chains remain degraded because politicians around the world didn’t think through their lockdown policies. The deeply interconnected global economy does not have an ON/OFF switch. Idle resources and idle workers don’t simply spring to life and produce goods and services on command. But our policy makers have no conception of a structure of production, its temporal elements, or the ravages of malinvestment created by their political decision to shutter businesses.

Third, covid allowed the Fed to justify yet another spasm of “extraordinary” monetary policies beginning in March 2020. This gave central bankers an easy out, in a sense, because real trouble was already on the horizon back in September 2019. The repo market, which commercial banks use for short-term (overnight) financing of their operations, suddenly seized up and sent rates spiking.....

....MUCH MORE

January 20, 2022:
"Economist Michael Hudson Says the Fed 'Broke the Law' with its Repo Loans to Wall Street Trading Houses"
At the time I remember thinking "Oh look, the Fed has a new lending facility" and moving on to something shiny, not realizing it was a very big deal. As the old-timers used to say: "Pay attention or pay the offer."

January 19
A Nomura Document May Shed Light on the Repo Blowup and Fed Bailout of the Gang of Six in 2019

And a most amazing little write-up from The Philosophical Salon, October 8, 2021:
Money, Money, Money: "A Self-Fulfilling Prophecy: Systemic Collapse and Pandemic Simulation"
Is this why we had lockdowns?