Sunday, April 18, 2021

"Container shipping is about to report blockbuster Q1 earnings"

Ya think?

Here are some of the headlines at FreightWaves over the last two weeks:

And, April 12:  

Bullish indicators from Evergreen, COSCO and MPC

Listed container-ship owners and operators won’t report final Q1 results for another month, but three early disclosures give a taste of what’s to come. The signals are flashing bright green.

Taiwan-listed Evergreen just posted record-breaking monthly operating revenues for March, while Oslo, Norway-listed MPC Containers revised its outlook upward and Hong Kong-listed COSCO Shipping announced preliminary results that shattered analyst expectations.

The first quarter is shaping up to be much better than Q4 2020. For most container-shipping companies, it could be the best quarter in their history — at least, until the second quarter.

Evergreen’s Q1 revenues jump

As the world fixated on the plight of the Ever Given in the Suez Canal, the liner company that operates the ship, Evergreen Marine Corp, was wrapping up the best quarter, revenue-wise, in its history.

Evergreen reported 32.17 billion New Taiwan dollars (NT$) in operating revenue for the month of March, up 135% year-on-year and up 40% versus Q4 2020. Revenues for the first quarter totaled NT$90.24 billion, the equivalent of $3.17 billion and just over double Q1 2020 revenues.

(Chart: American Shipper based on disclosures by Evergreen)

Fearnleys Securities noted Monday that Evergreen is “a close peer to ZIM [NYSE: ZIM] due to high trans-Pacific exposure.” Pointing to Evergreen’s Q1 revenue jump, it said “similar arithmetic” should apply to ZIM.

Consequently, Fearnleys believes ZIM’s Q1 2021 revenues will be $1.8 billion-$2 billion, with minimum earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of $800 million. “In short, ZIM generates 50%-plus of FY 2021 guidance in one quarter.” Furthermore, Fearnleys believes ZIM’s Q2 results “will match if not exceed Q1.”

MPC: Estimated EBITDA up eightfold

MPC Containers (OSLO: MPCC) leases out a fleet of 60 smaller box vessels, most with capacities in the range of 1,300-2,800 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs)....