Three from Bannockburn's Marc Chandler:
Overview: Most financial centers are closed for the holiday today. Those markets that were open in the Asia Pacific region, like Japan, China, and South Korea, advanced. US equity futures are also higher after the S&P 500 reached a new record, and the NASDAQ gapped higher. The cash market is closed today, but the bond market will have a shortened session. On the week, the 10-year benchmark yields in the US and Europe are a little softer but jumped 15 bp and 13 bp in Australia and New Zealand, respectively. The US dollar continues its slightly weaker bias that has emerged over the past few days. For the week, it is mixed. The Norwegian krone's 0.6% gain leads the majors, followed by the New Zealand dollar's 0.4% gain and sterling's 0.35% rise. The Swedish krona (~-0.85%) and Japanese yen (-0.7%) have been the weakest performers. We note that key levels in the euro ($1.17) and against the yen (JPY111.00) were held. Among emerging market currencies, there are two to note. The Turkish lira is up about 1.2% to turn higher for the week. The greenback gave back about 1% this week after surging over 12% in the prior week. The South Korean won rose 0.4% today, which was also sufficient to turn it higher on the week (~0.15%), ostensibly helped by the US chip summit on April 12. JP Morgan's Emerging Market Currency Index has a firmer tone and is poised for the third day of gains. It is up about 0.6% for the week, and it is the third weekly advance of the past four. Gold is marginally extending the nearly $45 rally over the past two sessions. It bottomed near $1678 earlier this week and is now above $1730. The $1750-$1755 area is of technical importance. Crude oil futures are closed but took the unexpected news that OPEC+ will gradually boost output in the coming months as well, and the May WTI contract settled $2.3 higher yesterday to $61.45. This turned it higher for the week, the first advance after a three-week fall.
US Employment: The US stock market is closed today, and the bond market has an abbreviated session. The release of the monthly jobs report while the stock market is closed has happened about a dozen times since 1980. The lack of participation could inject extra volatility, and especially if the data disappoints. The stimulus and the vaccine rollout are spurring optimism and the estimate for today's non-farm payroll gain appears to be creeping higher. The Bloomberg survey's median forecast is for a gain of 660k in a range of 232k to 1.1 mln. The unemployment rate stood at 6.2% in February and is expected to have fallen to 6.0%, though some see it declining more. Recall that the US lost 1.6 mln jobs in March 2020 as the pandemic struck. The employment data often sets the tone for the other high-frequency economic readings in the month. The PMI and ISM also point to an acceleration of economic activity....
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And April 1:
April Monthly
Four major forces shaped the investment climate in the first quarter: the evolution of the virus and the rollout of the vaccine, the rising long-term interest rates driven by higher oil prices, America’s large fiscal stimulus, and optimism about the outlook, a sharp divergence between the US and other high-income countries, and a recovery in the US dollar after sliding in November and December 2020. These forces will continue to dominate at the start of the second quarter....
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And finally, April 1sts daily, just because the accompanying illustration reminded me of a quote from singer, dancer, comedian, actor, musician Danny Kaye, "A jester unemployed is nobody's fool!":
Here's to a Better Second Quarter
Overview: The global capital markets have begun the new month and quarter on a good note. Equity markets are encouraged by yesterday's gains in the US. Most markets in the Asia Pacific region rallied, led by Hong Kong, even though earnings reports saw trading halted in around 50 companies. Europe's Down Jones Stoxx 600 is edging closer to last year's record high, and US futures are trading with a clear upside bias, led by the Nasdaq. Benchmark bond yields are a little softer, with the US 10-year yields around 1.71%. The dollar is mostly firmer, but the euro held the $1.1700 support. The greenback has remained below JPY111, which it approached yesterday. The Turkish lira, South African rand, and central/eastern European currencies are leading emerging market currencies higher. The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is posting back-to-back gains for the first time in three weeks. Gold is extending yesterday's recovery but has met resistance at $1720. As the market awaits the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting, May WTI is straddling the $60-level....MUCH MORE
