Do I hear 3% year-over-year CPI? 4%. 5%
From The Federal Reserve Bank of New York:
Apr 09, 2021: New York Fed Staff Nowcast
- The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 6.0% for 2021:Q1 and 1.5% for 2021:Q2.
- News from this week’s data releases decreased the nowcast for 2021:Q1 by 0.2 percentage point and decreased the nowcast for 2021:Q2 by 0.1 percentage point.
- A negative surprise from international trade data accounted for most of the decrease in both quarters.
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And somewhat surprisingly, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow, which usually runs "hotter" than the Nowcast (they tend to converge as the GDP report date approaches) is a bit cooler than New York.
From the Federal Reserve Bank Of Atlanta
Latest estimate: 6.0 percent — April 9, 2021
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2021 is 6.0 percent on April 9, down from 6.2 percent on April 7. After this morning’s wholesale trade release from the U.S. Census Bureau and this morning’s report on producer prices from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to first-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -0.90 percentage points to -1.04 percentage points....
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The 10-year note is getting closer to a 1.75% yield which might be an interesting number.
Stay tuned.
