From Fish Farming Expert, January 4:
The salmon spot price in 2019 (grey line) and 2020 (orange line). This
year's spot price is expected to rise but not immediately.
Salmon prices will remain low for the time being but will eventually recover, according to analysts in the world’s biggest salmon producing country, Norway. However, they differ over how long producers must wait for a price increase.
Carl-Emil Kjølås Johannessen, seafood analyst at Pareto Securities, is the most optimistic. He told Fish Farming Expert’s Norwegian sister site Kyst.no that although prices are starting the year low, “we believe in a strengthening throughout the quarter, and expect average prices of more than NOK 50 (£4.29) for the first quarter”.
High standing biomass will lead to good growth in volume from Norway, which in turn will put some pressure on prices.
Fewer fish from Chile
“In Chile, on the other hand, it is the other way around, and biomass is at a significantly lower level than at the same time last year. Overall, we therefore expect quite limited supply growth in 2021,” said Johannessen, who thinks the average spot price will be higher this year than in 2020.
“It will probably be at a significantly lower level in Q1 (than in Q1 2020), but from Q2 we believe in higher prices in 2021 vs 2020. Especially in H2 2021, we expect significantly higher prices than we have seen in 2020 driven by reduced supply from Chile and an expectation of normalised demand.”
Johannessen said that a resurgence in demand from the food service sector would be crucial....
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