Thursday, January 28, 2021

EIA Natural Gas Storage Report

First up, the estimates going in via FX Empire:

....NGI [Natural Gas Intelligence] is reporting that Bespoke anticipates EIA to report to a draw of 140 Bcf for the week-ended January 22.

“Analysts are broadly expecting a triple-digit pull, though not as big of a decrease as reported a week earlier. EIA recorded a pull of 187 Bcf from storage for the week ended January 15, the largest decrease of the season,” NGI wrote.

“For the latest week, a Reuters poll found estimates ranging from withdrawals of 127 Bcf to 145 Bcf, with a median decrease of 138 Bcf. Bloomberg’s survey of analysts landed at a median decrease of 139 Bcf, with estimates ranging from pulls of 131 Bcf to 143 Bcf,” NGI said....

And the report from the Energy Information Administration

...Working gas in storage was 2,881 Bcf as of Friday, January 22, 2021, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 128 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 78 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 244 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,637 Bcf. At 2,881 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.... 

Finally, the price action over the last week (30-minute candles) via the CME:

Last week's "EIA Natural Gas Storage Report", January 22 at 2.441:

With that bigger of the gaps stretching from 2.35 to 2.56 the turnaround could begin at any level now.

Got lucky, that happened to be the day of the intermediate-term low.