Holiday delayed
First up, the estimates going in, via FX Empire under the headline "Sellers Looking Beyond EIA Data at Early February Warming":
....NGI’s model predicted a 191 Bcf withdrawal for the week ended January 15. That would compare with a 97 Bcf pull recorded in the year-ago period and a five-year average withdrawal of 167 Bcf.
A Bloomberg survey landed at a median expected pull of 175 Bcf, with projections ranging from decreases of 158 Bcf to 191 Bcf. A Reuters poll found estimates spanning withdrawals of 133 Bcf to 191 Bcf, with a median decrease of 178 Bcf. Bespoke estimated a 177 Bcf decline in storage....
And the report from the Energy Information Administration:
Working gas in storage was 3,009 Bcf as of Friday, January 15, 2021, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 187 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 36 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 198 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,811 Bcf. At 3,009 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
Finally, the price action* over the last week from the CME:
*As noted in the outro from the January 14 storage report at 2.686, currently at 2.441:
There are a couple gaps in the chart if we go back five weeks that may com into play:
With that bigger of the gaps stretching from 2.35 to 2.56 the turnaround could begin at any level now.
