Friday, January 22, 2021

EIA Natural Gas Storage Report

Holiday delayed

 First up, the estimates going in, via FX Empire under the headline "Sellers Looking Beyond EIA Data at Early February Warming":

....NGI’s model predicted a 191 Bcf withdrawal for the week ended January 15. That would compare with a 97 Bcf pull recorded in the year-ago period and a five-year average withdrawal of 167 Bcf.

A Bloomberg survey landed at a median expected pull of 175 Bcf, with projections ranging from decreases of 158 Bcf to 191 Bcf. A Reuters poll found estimates spanning withdrawals of 133 Bcf to 191 Bcf, with a median decrease of 178 Bcf. Bespoke estimated a 177 Bcf decline in storage....

And the report from the Energy Information Administration:

Working gas in storage was 3,009 Bcf as of Friday, January 15, 2021, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 187 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 36 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 198 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,811 Bcf. At 3,009 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

Finally, the price action* over the last week from the CME:

*As noted in the outro from the January 14 storage report at 2.686, currently at 2.441:

There are a couple gaps in the chart if we go back five weeks that may com into play:

With that bigger of the gaps stretching from 2.35 to 2.56 the turnaround could begin at any level now.