Friday, April 3, 2020

Capital Markets: "Oil Firm, Greenback Extends Gains"

Those prints under $20 on March 30th seem like a distant memory with yesterday;s big pop not just holding but being built upon:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/1ZoShat1/

From Marc to Market:
Overview: Global equities are finishing the week on a soggy tone despite the 2%+ gains seen in the US yesterday. The extension of shutdowns, rising contagion and fatality rate, and imploding economies weigh on prices. In Asia, Korea and Indonesia bucked the trend to most minor gains. Europe is giving back yesterday's gains, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is nearly flat on the week. US shares are paring yesterday's gains as well, Benchmark bond yields are little changed, though, at 60 bp, the US 10-year yield is about 13 bp lower on the week. European bond yields are mostly higher on the week, and most premiums over Germany have widened slightly, though not Italy. The dollar remains bid. It is higher against most of the world's currencies heading into the weekend. Among the majors, only the Norwegian krone has gained on the greenback. The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is off by about 2.5% this week. Gold is consolidating after regaining the $1600 level yesterday. Near $1611, it is off about 1% on the week. Oil prices are consolidating yesterday's surge.

Asia Pacific
Like its manufacturing component, the Caixin services PMI rose to 43 from 26.5. The composite rose to 46.7 from 27.5.
The below 50 reading means it is still contracting, albeit at a slower pace than previously. It is clear from several different measures that China's economic and social activity is recovering. The extent of it is the question. China continues to take action to support the economy and today cut the required reserve ratio for small banks by one percentage point.

In Japan, Prime Minister Abe remains reluctant to call a state of emergency could do so early next week if confirmed cases continue to rise. Meanwhile, it is interesting to note that the final service and composite PMI showed small improvement from the flash readings. To wit: the services PMI is at 33.8 up from 32.7 in the preliminary reading and 46.8 in February. The composite PMI edged up to 36.2 from 35.8 flash estimate and 47.0 in February. Next week, the government is expected to finalize a fiscal package for over JPY500 trillion.

Australia's services PMI deteriorated to 38.5 from the preliminary reading of 39.8 and 49.0 in February.
The final composite stands at 39.4 from the 40.7 initial estimate and 49.0 in February. The RBA and the RBNZ have launched asset purchase programs, and the latter indicated it was accelerating its efforts....
....MUCH MORE