This is the first of the probably 8 - 10 forecasts we'll be posting in the run-up to the May 31 kickoff to the 2021 Hurricane season. And one thing all the forecasts will incorporate, whether they mention it or not, is the El Niño /Southern Oscillation index approaching ENSO neutral (the range between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) before heading back to hurricane friendly La Niña conditions (La Niña conditions are lower than -0.5°C while a full-blown La Niña is three consecutive three month periods of same) right in the gut of the hurricane season.
From IRI/Columbia University, the plume of the ENSO forecasts as of March 19, note the Climate Prediction Center (blue line) consolidated forecast:
And from Artemis, April 6:
The Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to be another busy one in 2021, with more than 16 named tropical storms expected, at least 7 of which are forecast to become hurricanes and at least 3 major hurricanes, according to forecaster Accuweather.
After a record-breaking 2020 hurricane season which saw the Greek alphabet called into use for storm names, the insurance, reinsurance and insurance-linked securities (ILS) market may face another above average year in 2021, the latest seasonal forecast suggests.
Accuweather says that another busy year is forecast, albeit not at the levels experienced last season.
Compared to the 30-year average, Accuweather’s forecast indicates that 2021 could be an above-normal season for tropical activity in the Atlantic.
Accuweather’s forecast team expects 16-20 named storms, 7 to 10 hurricanes and 3 to 5 forecast to become major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher with maximum sustained winds of 111 mph or greater)....
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Also at Artemis, April 6:
Florida set for some of the steepest NFIP flood insurance rate rises
Florida is set to experience some of the steepest increases in rates and pricing of flood insurance coverage under the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) after the release of FEMA’s new Risk Rating 2.0 system comes into effect over the next year....
....MUCH MORE
