From FT Alphaville:
And back to Stifel:
Survivors: (1) Gas producers: Serica Energy is 85% North Sea gas with cash and no debt; Diversified Gas & Oil produces 90% gas in Appalachia; Energean's current production is small compared to the value of its future production, which is tilted towards fixed price gas. Wentworth Energy sells fixed price gas in Tanzania. (2) Net cash: Jadestone Energy has hedging, net cash and substantial undrawn debt, although it won't generate FCF at below $50 oil in 2020; Genel Energy is net cash although payments from the Kurdistan Regional Government would likely become intermittent or cease entirely; SDX Energy is in a net cash position and its CF is gasweighted. (3) Ultra-low cost: Lundin Petroleum's <$5 opex, super high-quality assets and Lundin family relationship mean it will be able to renegotiate bank debt with a liquidity extension required this year in our view. (4) Flexible capex: Cairn Energy and partners will delay spending in Senegal, in our view, conserving cash. AkerBP has a sensible balance sheet, substantial undrawn debt and is in control of its spending because it operates most of its assets.
The others: (1) Tullow Oil will likely have a major liquidity problem in 2021 that will require agreement from both bondholders and banks to solve; (2) We can't see investors backing Premier Oil's $500M equity-funded BP asset acquisition. Assuming on March 17 the Scottish Court sanctions the debt maturity extension to 2023, there's no immediate cash crunch, but Premier will breach covenants ~(though we expect banks to be lenient and give waivers) and be FCF negative, meaning assets go into premature decline.
9:35am GMT -- Berenberg stress tests the E&P majors for famine and reckons, given capacity to cut capex and scrip the dividends, the floor for shares is 10 per cent below their 2016 lows: ........MUCH MORE
Berenberg is also looking favorably on titanium dioxide, per Mr. Elder last week, for what it's worth
