"Goldman Now Sees US GDP Crashing 34% In Q2"; "...Futures Slide As Dollar Surge Returns"

Two from ZeroHedge: 
"The Biggest Decline Ever": Goldman Now Sees US GDP Crashing 34% In Q2

....We were right, because early on Monday morning Goldman's Haztius did just that, and in a report titled "The Sudden Stop: A Deeper Trough, A Bigger Rebound", he writes that he is "making further significant adjustments to our GDP and employment estimates. We now forecast real GDP growth of -9% in Q1 and -34% in Q2 in qoq annualized terms (vs. -6% and -24% previously) and see the unemployment rate rising to 15% by midyear (vs. 9% previously)."

Detailing the assumptions behind his latest revision, Hatzius explains that he has increased his estimates of the peak hit to services consumption, manufacturing activity, and construction, "in light of new evidence on the severity of the hit across the different sectors" and now expects the level of GDP in April to be 13% below the January/February trend, as shown in Exhibit 1. "We assume that this drag then fades gradually by 10% each month in the services industry and by 12.5% in the manufacturing and construction industries."

Behind the core of the drop Goldman sees a 19% annualized drag from services consumption on Q2 growth, on top of a 3pp drag on Q1 growth. as shown in the next chart.

Ok but why do the reputable epidemiologists at Goldman believe the pandemic will fade in coming weeks? Here's why (and yes, warm weather makes an appearance):

While the exact timing of the medical and economic recovery is highly uncertain and relapses are plausible, our assumption is that stronger lockdown and social distancing measures and perhaps some weather effects reduce new infections sharply over the next month. Combined with potential medical breakthroughs or adaptation by firms and consumers, this slowdown in new infections is likely to lead to a gradual economic recovery. The slow pace of recovery in our forecast even in 2021 allows for longer-lasting scarring effects on businesses and workers

And at the risk of repeating ourselves too, we will say that within a week, Goldman will cut its forecast again this time to -50% as we approach the moment when even banks admit the entire US economy has ground to a halt....

...MUCH MORE 

Is it warmer temperature or is it the ultraviolet light in sunshine that kills viruses in summer?
It matters because it would change the recommendations on getting outside and catching some rays.

Also at ZH:

Rally Fizzles, Futures Slide As Dollar Surge Returns

The torrid quarter-end rally which many attributed to a flood of forced pension fund buying as part of aggressive rebalancing, reversed overnight as US index futures reversed all overnight gains even as European stocks headed for a fifth increase in six sessions amid ongoing debate whether the market meltdown has ended despite the accelerating spread of the coronavirus (spoiler alert: no), while treasury yields dipped below 0.7% while the disconcerting dollar rally is back front and center.

S&P 500 futures rose as high as 2,640 before sliding back under 2,600 as politicians were said to contemplate a fourth round of stimulus, but they struggled to stay in the green as speculation the pension fund bid had faded. Oil producers Exxon Mobil Corp. and Occidental Petroleum Corp. jumped in the premarket thanks to a rebound in oil prices from 18-year lows after the United States and Russia agreed to discuss stabilizing energy markets.

In Europe, energy shares led gains in the Stoxx 600 Index after the World Health Organization said signs emerged of some stabilization in the region’s outbreak. A measure of European corporate-credit stress eased further. Even with today's modest rebound Europe is still set for its worst quarter on record....

....MORE 
DJIA futures down 223, S&P down 28.