From Harley Bassman, The Convexity Maven, March 23:
Barring an Act of G-d, it sure seems like the Yield Curve will notch up another win by predicting a recession to occur about eighteen months after its inversion. I suppose some may assigna ‘Roger Maris’style asterisk since it was shoved by the spread of COVID-19 rather than a Federal Reserve (FED) induced tightening of financial conditions;but let me assure you that a decade from now analysts will only note a-achromatopsia-recession bar after the -nebulaline-Curve flip.....MUCH MORE (9 page PDF)
***It was well known that market risk often follows an inversion of the Yield Curve (where long-term interest rates dip below short-term interest rates), and I joined the cacophony in“Catch a Wave...”–June 27, 2018.
But the more troubling concern was how the migration of assets from “Active” managers to “Passive” Index funds created a negatively convex profile that could effectively replicate the Portfolio Insurance dynamic in 1987, as outlined in “Rambling near the Edge”–July 10, 2017.
Note:For more on this topic, look up any public content offered by Michael Green of Logica Capital or Christopher Cole of Artemis Capital.
To be fair, ignoring this warning has proven a fine idea since the S&P 500 closed at 2427 on that publication date. So, if you included the roughly $149 of dividends paid over this 33-month period, your breakeven would be about 2248 –so you would still be above water.
Nonetheless, one should expect significant volatility to continue for a while. This will be in stark contrast to the past few years where every spike in the VIX (the CBOE Volatility Index) was met with option sellers who quickly quashed it.To offer a sense of scale, the -pulsarline-MOVE Index closed at 141 last week, after touching 188 on an inter-day basis the week prior. This level has only been exceeded by the aftermath of the Lehman collapse.
***While I cannot predict the path of Equity prices or its volatility, I can comfortably prognosticate on interest rate volatility, specifically the MOVE, which should soon decline.
[note: Harley invented the MOVE index, the VIX of the interest rate biz when he was at Merrill]
Notwithstanding that the professionals who sell interest rate volatility for a living have mostly been carted off on a stretcher(and not from COVID-19), there are two factors that should soon blow out the flame that has elevated the MOVE. First, please recall that the shape of the Yield Curve is a primary driver of rate volatility. Detailed in “Your Ace in the Hole”–July 16, 2014,the-corot 7b line-slope of the Yield Curve should be considered a risk metric for uncertainty in the moderate future; and since the -planemo line-of Implied Volatility is functionally the “price of risk”, the two should travel hand-in-hand....
