Saturday, March 14, 2020

Coronavirus: Watching France As A Template For U.S. Disease Propagation

Here's a chart from Eric Feigl-Ding, visiting scientist at Harvard's School of Public Health...


Image

...who I'm pretty sure is aware of the difference in testing regimes of the countries in the above graph.
(in January Feigl-Ding retweeted a paper that ended up getting retracted by its authors -Atlantic)

The thing that stands out, after Hong Kong's outlier performance which we noted a while back, is the fact the U.S. is pretty much following the trajectory of France with a lag of 4 or 5 days.
The two countries also, to date, have similar testing protocols i.e. only if you present as sick.

Curious yet wary reader may have noted that beginning on March 12 we replaced the blog descriptor, upper left, with a running total of deaths attributed to Covid-19 since the first death was reported in the U.S. on February 29.
We are doing this with the numbers supplied by Worldometers which seem to be as accurate as the Johns Hopkins dashboard but is updated more frequently. Both of those sources are on the blogroll at right.

For France, the current Worlometers capsule description is:

Last updated: March 15, 2020, 04:30 GMT

 France

Coronavirus Cases:

4,469

Deaths:

91

Recovered:

12

But the whole page is worth a look.