Tuesday, March 3, 2020

Capital Markets: "Multilateralism has been Fractured: G7 may act in Concert, but Little Scope for Coordination"

Hmmmm....so what now? Keynesian bottles of cash buried in coal mines?*
Chinese infrastructure spending, that's the ticket.
From Marc to Market:
Overview: The Fed rate cut that many had expected before the US equity markets opened yesterday failed to materialize, but the focus shifted to a possible coordinated G7 action as early as today. A conference call with the G7 finance ministers and central bankers, led by this year's G7 head, US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, is slated to begin, according to a Reuters report at 7:00 am ET today. France's Finance minister Le Maire told Reuters that there will be coordinated action, The S&P 500 gained 4.6% to close at a three-day high. Asia-Pacific and European equities have followed suit. Japanese stocks were an exception as the Nikkei failed to hold opening gains. Given the magnitude of the US rally, the rise in the Asia Pacific region was modest. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up almost 3% in late morning turnover, with broad gains distributed across industries. If gains are sustained, it would be the first back-to-back advance since February 11-12. US shares are consolidating, apparently waiting for the G7 meeting outcome. Peripheral European bonds have rallied (yields off 4-8 basis points) while core bonds are mostly lower (yields up 3-4 bp). The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield is a little lower, hovering around 1.15%. The dollar is mixed. Of note, the Australian dollar is higher following the Reserve Bank of Australia's 25 bp rate cut. Emerging market currencies are mostly lower, including the Malaysian ringgit after its central bank delivered a 25 bp rate cut as well. After falling $59 an ounce at the end of last week, gold edged higher yesterday and is firmer today, but struggling to re-establish a foothold above $1600. Oil is extending yesterday's nearly 4.5% advance. It is up about 3% to push above $48 amid speculation that OPEC+ will agree to cut output by as much as 750k barrels a day later this week.

Asia Pacific
The Bank of Japan tried the same operation as it did yesterday, offering cash for JPY500 bln JGBs in an unscheduled repo, While yesterday's measure was successfully taken up, today's was well undersubscribed. Only 30% of the cash was taken, suggesting that the lack of liquidity is not the pressing issue. The BOJ also appears to have bought a record amount of ETFs yesterday. Its policy framework lends it to scaling up (or down) as needed/desired. Some link Japan's underperformance today to a press report suggesting that Hokkaido may be experiencing 10x more infections that have been acknowledged. The island declared a national emergency last week (until March 19). Separately, Japan reported auto sales fell 10.3% last month year-over-year. Prime Minister Abe has indicated the second set of policies to support the economy will be unveiled on March 10.

The Reserve Bank of Australia delivered a 25 bp rate cut and indicated it was prepared if necessary to cut rates again. The target rate is now at 50 bp. The derivatives market is pricing in about a 70% chance of another cut at the April 7 meeting.

South Korea revised Q4 GDP to show a 1.3% quarter-over-quarter instead of 1.2%, but the more important news was the weakness in February CPI. It was flat on the month, which brought the year-over-year rate to 1.1%, down from 1.5% in January. The core rate fell to 0.6% from 0.9%. Last week, it unexpectedly left its seven-day repo rate at 1.25%....
....MUCH MORE
*   
        "If the Treasury were to fill old bottles with banknotes, bury them at suitable depths in disused coalmines which are then filled up to the surface with town rubbish, and leave it to private enterprise on well-tried principles of laissez-faire to dig the notes up again (the right to do so being obtained, of course, by tendering for leases of the note-bearing territory), there need be no more unemployment and, with the help of the repercussions, the real income of the community, and its capital wealth also, would probably become a good deal greater than it actually is. It would, indeed, be more sensible to build houses and the like; but if there are political and practical difficulties in the way of this, the above would be better than nothing." 

—Keynes, John Maynard. "Book III: The Propensity to Consume."
The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money.
New York: Harcourt, Brace, 1936. 129.