Sunday, November 10, 2019

FT Alphaville's Markets Live: Was Apple's Decision To Stop Reporting Unit Volume a Tell?

Stepping outside the chronological order we have been using in our look back at Markets Live we skip ahead to the tenure of FT UK equities reporter Bryce Elder's time at the helm of ML, and what turned out to be a very profitable observation.
Via Climateer Investing, January 2, 2019

Was Apple's Decision to Stop Reporting Unit Volume Last November A Tell?
I vaguely remember reading about it at Markets Live, but the images are jumbled.

Bryce was delayed getting to the Markets Live desk, but unlike a day earlier, not complaining that ML cut into his actual work. He seemed oddly resigned to his task of  keeping the Rabble on the Right on a short leash.
Cue dream sequence:
Bryce Elder

BE What?
Blank canvas good morning everyone
VV75 morning
AAAA bonjour !
Sails Morning
Soundbuy Morgen..........
BE The time? Yeah, new policy. From now on we won't be releasing specific data on the exact start time of ML.

GBKrona Hola
LeonardSG Morning
BE We believe the metric distracts the ROTR from the underlying trends affecting the quality of FT Alphaville's daily thing with the typing.

AAAA à la AAPL ...
Soundbuy We're well-conditioned already
Viking1 Morning and APPL down 7.3 pre market
Viking1 %
AAAA if aapl do it, why not ML
JimboRock Alibaba please
rwl Good morning "randomville" :)
Viking1 How many points on the Dow?

BE The ROTR should expect the information we are willing to provide, not the information they actually want.
BE Which, TBH, has always been the policy.

irish hedge fund guy guten morgen, or perhaps abend
irish hedge fund guy yes apple tired of focus on Iphones lol
BE So ............. let's head straight into the world's biggest single-product toy maker.

Viking1 Oil futures?Trump already allowing India etc to buy oil from the verboten land
BE Didn't think it'd autoticker. Down 6.2% premarket last I checked.
Flaneur Loads of rehashed clickbait about Apples $1trn valuation and 'what its bigger
than...combined'.Crazy valuation for a one trick pony. Its worth 25% at most.
BE Actually, rallied a bit. 5.5% now. And volume of 540k, which isn't bad.
jackdaniel37 Trump China whats the deal 

BE The news is two headed.
BE First, guidance for the Christmas quarter's weaker than expected.
rw42 I'm amazed there aren't enough people insulted by the thought of >£1k phones
that they've not killed their market - especially considering the number of people i see
with cracked phone screens!
BE Cautious noises on sales in EM, which weren't entirely unexpected, and cautious noises on margins, which weren't.
LeonardSG prolly a scheme to ensure inflation

BE Given DRAM prices etc are on their way down.
irish hedge fund guy and AMZN at $1trn as well. Look at it now..
Viking1 Off course this pre market decline in AAPL ...
not that many years that was equivalent to the entire market cap of the company
BE Second, we have the conference call bombshell of investors no longer getting unit volume data.
Excel Developer #Midterms: pinch of salt please with any tweets about progress in trade talks.
BE Why? because Apple's no longer a hardware company of course. It's a bank of installed customers who can be filleted in multiple ways, not just by hardware sales.
Anonymous For Today good morning. Has VVO ever been covered here?
I would love a few opinions
tonyb Newbie question: What does ROTR stand for?

BE And the fact that the decision has been made not to release unit data when unit data is flatlining is entirely coincidental.
Excel Developer ROTR = Rabble on the right.
BE Here's Oppenheimer....

[okay, my dream sequences may be different from yours]  
That's the way I remember it. 
It was a tell. 
How can I tell it was a tell?
Because Bryce was trying to tell us it was a tell. 
AAPL Apple Inc. weekly Stock Chart

Attentive observer will note a rather profitable short-selling opportunity in Apple's stock in the two months between Mr. Elder's November 2 observation and our January 2 post.
Thanks Bryce 
We'll get back to Messieurs Murphy et Hume and the Great Financial Unpleasantness but this bit o'Bryce has a special place in our otherwise flinty hearts.
Although Mr. Elder will no longer be found at Markets Live he writes a  Stocks to Watch column as well as other pieces for the FT.