From IRI/Columbia:
2019 November Quick Look
Published: November 14, 2019
SSTs in the east-central Pacific were near thresholds of weak El Niño levels during October and early November. However, most patterns in most atmospheric variables maintained neutral conditions. The oceanic warming is attributed to intraseasonal variability, and the overall diagnosis indicates ENSO-neutral conditions. Most model forecasts favor ENSO-neutral through winter and spring, with very slightly higher chances for El Niño than La Niña. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts.....MUCH MORE
Figures 1 and 3 (the official ENSO probability forecast and the objective model-based ENSO probability forecast, respectively) are often quite similar. However, occasionally they may differ noticeably. There can be several reasons for differences. One possible reason is that the human forecasters, using their experience and judgment, may disagree to some degree with the models, which may have known biases. Another reason is related to the fact that the models are not run at the same time that the forecasters make their assessment, so that the starting ENSO conditions may be slightly different between the two times. The charts on this Quick Look page are updated at two different times of the month, so that between the second and the third Thursday of the month, the official forecast (Fig. 1) has just been updated, while the model-based forecasts (Figs. 3 and 4) are still from the third Thursday of the previous month. On the other hand, from the third Thursday of the month until the second Thursday of the next month, the model-based forecasts are more recently updated, while the official forecasts remain from the second Thursday of the current month....
Now watch a La Niña start next month and make all the other models, and yours truly, look like dolts.
