Friday, November 15, 2019

EIA: Natural Gas Weekly Update

That gap-up from October looks like a tempting target, weather permitting (duh):

Front (December) futures: 2.653 +0.006

From the U.S. Energy Information Administration:
or week ending November 13, 2019   |  Release date:  November 14, 2019   |
....Overview:
(For the week ending Wednesday, November 6, 2019)
  • Natural gas spot prices fell at most locations this report week (Wednesday, November 6 to Wednesday, November 13). Henry Hub spot prices fell from $2.78 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $2.62/MMBtu yesterday.
  • At the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), the price of the December 2019 contract decreased 23¢, from $2.828/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.600/MMBtu yesterday. The price of the 12-month strip averaging December 2019 through November 2020 futures contracts declined 8¢/MMBtu to $2.487/MMBtu.
  • Net injections to working gas totaled 3 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ending November 8. Working natural gas stocks are 3,732 Bcf, which is 15% more than the year-ago level and equal to the five-year (2014–18) average for this week.
  • The natural gas plant liquids composite price at Mont Belvieu, Texas, rose by 4¢/MMBtu, averaging $5.69/MMBtu for the week ending November 13. The price of ethane and isobutane each fell by 3%. The price of natural gasoline and propane rose by 1%, and butane rose by 10%.
  • According to Baker Hughes, for the week ending Tuesday, November 5, the natural gas rig count remained flat at 130. The number of oil-directed rigs fell by 7 to 684. The total rig count decreased by 5, and it now stands at 817.

Prices/Supply/Demand: Prices at major hubs decline despite cold weather. This report week (Wednesday, November 6 to Wednesday, November 13), the Henry Hub spot price fell 16¢ from $2.78/MMBtu last Wednesday to a low of $2.62/MMBtu yesterday. Temperatures were cooler than normal east of the Rocky Mountains and warmer than normal west of the Rockies. At the Chicago Citygate, the price decreased 49¢ from $2.98/MMBtu last Wednesday to a low of $2.49/MMBtu yesterday.

Northeast prices are volatile with onset of cold temperatures and force majeure events. At the Algonquin Citygate, which serves Boston-area consumers, the price went up 85¢ from a low of $3.08/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.93/MMBtu yesterday. It reached a high of $6.38/MMBtu on Tuesday because of forecasts for cold weather. At the Transcontinental Pipeline Zone 6 trading point for New York City, the price increased 57¢ from a low of $2.70/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.27/MMBtu yesterday after reaching a high of $5.60/MMBtu on Tuesday.

Prices at supply hubs in the Northeast, however, declined as a force majeure decreased natural gas deliverability out of the Marcellus production region. The Tennessee Zone 4 Marcellus spot price decreased 37¢ from $2.42/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.05/MMBtu yesterday while the price at Dominion South in southwest Pennsylvania fell 32¢―from $2.46/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.14/MMBtu yesterday. Eastbound flows on the Texas Eastern Transmission pipeline (TETCO) were reduced by approximately 0.4 Bcf/d yesterday because of a force majeure at a compressor station in Entriken, Pennsylvania (100 miles west of Harrisburg)....
....MUCH MORE

The temperature anomaly map gives an indication of how much below average the temps were.
And for the week ending today it might have been, on average, chillier.

Mean Temperature Anomaly (F) 7-Day Mean ending Nov 07, 2019