Monday, October 14, 2019

Oil Tanker Rates Have Gone Parabolic With Attack On Iranian Tanker (anyone know where John Fredriksen is?) FRO; EURN

I have this vision in my head of the tanker king sitting in a lawn chair on that peninsula that juts into the Straits of Hormuz, taking potshots at passing Iranian ships as they sail by and watching his net worth spinning higher and higher.
Anyhoo..., two via gCaptain:

October 13
Supertankers See Another Windfall with Attack on Iranian Ship
Supertankers hauling oil on some of the world’s longest trade trade routes had already been enjoying a massive windfall. Then came a reported attack on an Iranian ship.

Daily rates for Very Large Crude Carriers to ship oil to China from the Persian Gulf soared by 90% to $300,391 a day, Baltic Exchange data show. Just a month ago those same vessels, which can carry 2 million barrels of crude, were earning $25,000 a day.

“We are seeing record levels today,” said Jonathan Chappell, an analyst focusing on marine transportation equities at Evercore ISI. “$300,000 VLCC rates are unprecedented, at least in the last 20 years.”
The surge comes amid a confluence of factors including U.S. sanctions on some vessels from China and geopolitical risk in the Middle East. Iran on Friday said that missiles hit one of its ships in the Red Sea. The incident comes less than a month after an attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil industry, which initially knocked out half of the kingdom’s output.

Shipping rates have been steadily rising for weeks. The market was already set to tighten in the short term as refineries wind down seasonal maintenance. Some ships were also due to be taken out of service to fit sulfur-reducing scrubbers ahead of the IMO 2020 environmental rules that are set to take effect in January, according to Chappell.

September Surge
The latest surge began in late September following the Trump administration’s sanctions on units of China’s COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation Co., the world’s largest merchant vessel owner. That rendered a significant number of ships off-limits. Even though oil traders have again started booking supertankers operated by the Chinese shipping giant, rates have continued to climb....MORE
And today:
Oil Tanker Rates Roar to New Records as Geopolitical Risks Swirl
Nothing right now is stopping a surge in oil tanker rates that’s given owners of the vessels one of the biggest boosts in years.

Rates have rallied so high that a secondhand supertanker could theoretically pay for itself in a couple of voyages, according to estimates from Clarkson Platou Securities AS. A normal payback period would often be about a decade. The combined market value of Frontline Ltd. and Euronav NV — two pureplay owners — has gained by 78% to $4.8 billion since mid-August.... 
....MORE

This month:
October 10 
Shipping: Another Record Price to Charter a Tanker
Remember "Shipping: After U.S. Sanctions, The Cost To Charter Oil Tankers Sets Record at $12 Million"?
It topped the $10 million record set October 1.

That was soooo last week.....
And unfortunately for Euronav, no one, I mean no one, saw this coming and we posted on September 9:
Euronav Repurposes The World's Largest Tanker to Fuel Bunker for IMO 2020 Compliant Juice
And that's a lot of juice:

We noted Euronav's purchase of their second of two remaining Ultra Large Crude Carriers back in 2018. Here's it's partner, the slightly smaller* TI Europe:
http://3kbo302xo3lg2i1rj8450xje.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/TI-Europe-800x459.jpg
File photo shows the ULCC TI Europe, one of two 3 million barrel capacity oil tankers currently in the world. Photo: Euronav
*441585 DWT vs  441561 DWT

More on them after the jump.
Like most of the group, the tanker fleets are not in overwhelming demand at the moment what with recession in some countries and slowing economies in others but they seem to be looking ahead to good times with Frontline in particular showing strength and Euronav on the cusp of breaking out of a downtrend:
https://www.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=EURN&ty=c&ta=1&p=d&s=l


The stock seems to be doing all right even with the big boat taken out of service to be used as a giant filling station for the rest of the EURN fleet.
And Mr. Fredriksen's baby:

FRO Frontline Ltd. daily Stock Chart