The EIA report is expected to show continued looseness and possibly “extreme looseness” in the market, Trader estimates are ranging from an 80 Bcf injection to a 107 Bcf injection for the week ended October 4.
Wall Street Journal analysts are looking for a median build of 94 Bcf. Bloomberg predicts a 99 Bcf median and NGI projected a 94 Bcf injection.
The EIA reported a 91 Bcf build for the same week last year, and the five-year average stands at 89 Bcf.We don't publish our estimates because of the "beauty contest" problem: you have to guess not just what the number is but just as (or more) importantly, guess how market participants will react to the number.
Because of this we advise against establishing positions in the 24 hours prior to the report. Better to use the brain and computing power to watch a cat video.
Or something.
From the Energy Information Administration:
for week ending October 4, 2019 | Released: October 10, 2019 at 10:30 a.m. | Next Release: October 17, 2019
Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN Historical Comparisons Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)Year ago
(10/04/18)5-year average
(2014-18)Region 10/04/19 09/27/19 net change implied flow Bcf % change Bcf % change East 854 826 28 28 786 8.7 852 0.2 Midwest 1,009 973 36 36 866 16.5 977 3.3 Mountain 203 199 4 4 180 12.8 205 -1.0 Pacific 296 291 5 5 262 13.0 316 -6.3 South Central 1,054 1,029 25 25 850 24.0 1,074 -1.9 Salt 229 220 9 9 190 20.5 278 -17.6 Nonsalt 825 809 16 16 661 24.8 796 3.6 Total 3,415 3,317 98 98 2,943 16.0 3,424 -0.3
Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.Summary
Working gas in storage was 3,415 Bcf as of Friday, October 4, 2019, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 98 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 472 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 9 Bcf below the five-year average of 3,424 Bcf. At 3,415 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
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And more to come after the weekly update with its cornucopia of info.
Front futures 2.240 +0.006, outer months down fractions of a penny.
From the CME:
