wadse report for 6/11/19
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2019/20 U.S. corn outlook is for increased beginning stocks and imports, sharply lower production, reduced feed and residual use and exports, and smaller ending stocks. Beginning stocks are up reflecting a 100-million-bushel decline in projected exports for 2018/19 to 2.2 billion bushels, based on current outstanding sales and reduced U.S. price competitiveness. Corn production for 2019/20 is forecast to decline 1.4 billion bushels to 13.7 billion, which if realized would be the lowest since 2015/16. Unprecedented planting delays observed through early June are expected to prevent some plantings and reduce yield prospects. USDA will release its Acreage report on June 28, which will provide survey-based indications of planted and harvested area. With sharply lower supplies, use is projected to decline 425 million bushels to 14.3 billion, based on reductions to feed and residual use and exports. With supplies falling more than use, ending stocks are projected to decline 810 million bushels to 1.7 billion, which if realized would be the lowest since 2013/14. The season-average farm price is raised 50 cents to $3.80 per bushel.And:
This month’s 2019/20 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, increased trade and lower stocks relative to last month. Argentina corn production is raised on increased area with higher prices. Canada corn production is lowered on reductions to both area and yield with planting delays in Ontario. Russia corn production is higher based on government data indicating larger-than-expected planted area. Barley production is lowered for the EU reflecting a reduction for Spain. For 2018/19, Brazil corn production is raised based on the latest government statistics.
Major global trade changes for 2019/20 include larger forecast corn exports for Argentina and Russia, with a partly offsetting reduction for Zambia. For 2018/19, exports are raised for Brazil and Argentina for the local marketing year beginning in March 2019 based on highert-han-expected shipments during May. Foreign corn ending stocks are lowered from last month mostly reflecting reductions for Argentina, Brazil, Canada, and the EU.
WHEAT: U.S. 2019/20 wheat supplies are down with lower beginning stocks partly offset by slightly higher production. Beginning stocks are down 25 million bushels on increased 2018/19 exports. Winter wheat production is forecast up 6 million bushels to 1,274 million with an increase to Hard Red Winter more than offsetting decreases for Soft Red Winter and White Winter. Total wheat production is now forecast at 1,903 million bushels, up 5.8 million bushels from the May forecast. Exports for 2019/20 are unchanged at 900 million bushels but feed and residual use is raised 50 million bushels to 140 million on reduced projected corn supplies. Ending stocks are lowered 69 million bushels to 1,072 million, and the season-average farm price is raised $0.40 per bushel to $5.10. The price increase reflects sharply higher wheat futures prices and reduced 2019/20 corn supplies....MUCH MORE
The Aftermath of Wet Spring: USDA Making Rare Adjustment to Corn Yield
The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed on Tuesday what many farmers already knew: the extremely wet spring is already eating away at yield potential. Driving through the Corn Belt this year, it seemed no matter than soil type, not many acres were immune to the historically wet spring.Corn popped on the report's release:
“It's the worst spring I’ve ever seen,” said Rob Korff, a farmer in Norborne, Mo.
Korff said every day this spring threw out a new curveball. With only two workable days during the month of May, and only a two-week window in April to not only spray and apply fertilizer, but plant what they could, the 2019 planting season continues to strain producers.
“We've been so wet all winter and spring where everyone was behind struggling to get on anhydrous, and fertilizer was a struggle and then getting the crop when conditions weren't the best,” he said. “Then, we got the monsoon of rain with one of the wettest Mays on record, and now stands are uneven. Every little low spot showed up. Then a ton of replant in this area with farmers spotting in corn, some tearing up corn. There's people still replanting corn today here on June 11th.”
He said planting conditions weren’t just less than ideal; conditions were horrid, which could have a negative impact on yield.
USDA acknowledged those struggles in its latest report released Tuesday. The agency pegged yield for the 2019 crop at 166 bushels per acre. Crop production is forecast to decline 1.4 billion bushels to 13.7 billion. For Korff, trimming the yield may be just a start as the extreme variability in fields mean a final average yield even on his farm will be hard to forecast.....MORE
