2019 hurricane forecast & landfall probabilities raised by Colorado State
The Colorado State University (CSU) tropical weather forecasting team has increased its prediction for the number of hurricanes that will form during the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season and also its landfall probabilities, but still cite the significant uncertainty associated with El Nino’s influence this year.If interested see also June 1's:
Releasing their latest hurricane forecast update for the 2019 Atlantic tropical storm season today, the Colorado State team led by Philip J. Klotzbach has opted for 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or greater, to form during the season ahead.
That’s an increase of 1 hurricane since the team’s April pre-season forecast outlook for 13 names storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes.
As well as increasing their forecast for the number of hurricanes that the Atlantic basin will see in 2019, the Colorado State forecasters have also increased their prediction for Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE) for the season, raising it from 80 to 99.
Adding this new data to all of the other hurricane forecasts we track over on our dedicated web page gives us an Artemis average forecast for the 2019 hurricane season of 13 named tropical storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes, with an average ACE forecast from those who provide it of 101.
Perhaps more ominous for insurance, reinsurance and insurance-linked securities (ILS) interests, the forecast team has also raised its probabilities for landfall metrics....MORE
Re/Insurance: With Today's Start of the Official Hurricane Season, A Look At Various Forecasts
(just kidding about the SAL, it doesn't really come into play until those long-haul Cape Verde storms start running later in the season)
As noted a couple weeks ago in "Hurricane Watch: Australia's Bureau of Meteorology Lowers Odds of Full-Blown El Niño":....
