You would really rather have the commercials going long rather than the funds...The thinking being: the speculators (funds) can be right from time to time but the commercial hedgers have to be right over time or the whole game ends,
Which raises some interesting questions regarding recent action in corn:
Note the green line in the bottom panel. The commercials have very abruptly gone very short a sizeable number of contracts.
And from AgWeb, the headline story:
Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for June 10, 2019.Grain markets are lower for a second straight session, with prices falling as farmers are expected to get a well-needed window of dry weather this week to complete planting. With this news on Friday, commodity funds were net sellers of corn, soybeans, soymeal, soyoil and wheat futures contracts, traders said. Traders will continue to pay attention to weather forecasts while analyzing significant amount of USDA data early this week.Last week, July corn futures finished down 11.25 cents, July soybean futures down 22.25 cents and July wheat up 0.5 cents. Soyoil down 27 points and soymeal down $5.30.Weekly crop progress report will be released at 3 p.m. CST. Trade is looking for corn planting at 80-85% complete (67% last week, 100% last year and 100% 5-year average). Soybean planting expected at 55-57% (39% last week, 93% last year and 84% 5-year average). Hard red Spring wheat planting at 96-97% (93% last week, 100% last year and 99% 5-year average. This report will also show the first corn condition rating around 62-63% GTE (79% GTE last year, 73.2% GTE 5-year average).USDA June supply/demand reports will be released tomorrow at 11 AM CDT. Analysts estimate average corn production at 14.251 billion bushels (15.030 USDA May report) and average yield at 172.4 bushels (176.0 USDA May report). Analysts estimate Soybean production at 4.123 billion bushels (4.150 USDA May report) and average soybean yield estimates at 49.0 bushels (49.5 USDA May report). Analysts estimate all wheat production at 1.883 billion bushels (1.897 USDA May report).CFTC Commitments of Traders report (as of 6/4/19) showed managed funds with a new net position for corn futures long 87,243 contracts, short -93,356 soybean contracts, short -13,348 wheat contracts, long 47,842 live cattle contracts and long 44,416 lean hog contracts.U.S. and Mexico struck a deal on Friday to avert a tariff war, with Mexico agreeing to rapidly expand a controversial asylum program and deploy security forces to stem the flow of illegal Central American migrants....
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Grains and soybeans have been moving on the weekly Crop Progress Reports.
Tomorrow's June WASDE is the first of the monthly reports we actually pay attention to, and do so through October.
