Monday, June 17, 2019

Africa: "Mali disintegrates"

We have a couple early warning signals spotlighting goings-on in Africa that I'm not really able to discuss beyond broad generalities. One of these signals had flagged up Burundi as being a possible area of econ/finance interest back in late 2015. Here's the introduction to a January 2016 post, "Will the West Create its Next Failed State in Burundi?":
There's something big going on across the globe that I've been debating posting on for the last four years.
If you are interested, here is one loose thread in a small corner of the tapestry to pick at, that, if followed, might lead on to the rest.
Further, your affiant sayeth naught....
Then the U.N and assorted NGO's started making noise about violence in Burundi and people fleeing; we caught up with that in April 2016's "We took a look at that in April 2016's "International Criminal Court Opens Early Probe Into Chicago Violence":
The prosecutor of the International Criminal Court has opened a preliminary probe into atrocities in Chicago over the last year, saying violence in the city has reportedly left more than 430 people dead and forced 230,000 to flee their homes.-ABC
Oh wait.
The ICC isn't looking into Chicago, it's looking into Burundi.
The numbers are very close though.
Chicago's murder stats for 2015 were Shot & Killed: 445 with 507 total homicides. Also something like 200,000 fleeing the city:
From a population of 2,896,016  in 2000 to 2,722,389 at the start of last year.
Of course Burundi's population is around 9 million so Chicago's percentages are higher.

Here's the latest on Burundi via the Financial Times: 
Burundi faces ICC probe as political violence escalates...
This all followed something really weird, in this case Presidential Executive Order 13712 of November 2015, which begins, in part:
I, BARACK OBAMA, President of the United States of America, find that the situation in Burundi, which has been marked by the killing of and violence against civilians, unrest, the incitement of imminent violence, and significant political repression, and which threatens the peace, security, and stability of Burundi, constitutes an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States, and I hereby declare a national emergency to deal with that threat. I hereby order:...
Bet you didn't know about that one huh?
So, to sum up, we had a violence level one-third Chicago's and a President (Nkurunziza) who has been in office for a shorter period than, say, U.S. and European BFF Rwanda's Kagame (since 2000) or Zimbabwe's Mugabe (since 1987) being used as a pretext to change the government.

And then Burundi dropped off the radar.
Nothing.
The herd of international NGO's and their media and the transnationals moved on.

And so should I. Except for one little thing, all this leads up to a short little note in the Financial Times:
December 5, 2017
Henry Sanderson
London-listed Rainbow Rare Earths said it has exported its first shipment of rare earths from its project in Burundi. The company said it shipped 25 tonnes of high grade rare earths from the east African country by road to Mombasa in Kenya. It will then be shipped to steel maker Thyssenkrupp.

The project is one of the few sources of rare earths outside of China. After a spectacular price bust in 2012 prices for rare earths have started to rise this year, as demand increases for magnets in electric car motors and wind turbines....
Brought to mind by the FT's natural resources editor and Mr. Sanderson's confrère, Neil Hume in a tweet June 6, 2019:
Here's the headline story, from Le Monde diplomatique:
Tuesday 11 June 2019. On Sunday night, at least 95 people were killed in Sobame Da, a Dogon village in central Mali. The attack is thought to have been a reprisal for an earlier massacre on 23 March, when Dogon militia killed 150 Fula herders in Ogossagou, a village 50 miles away. Since 2015, and the emergence in central Mali of preacher Hamadoun Koufa’s jihadist group, which recruits mainly among the majority-Muslim Fula pastoralists, clashes with the Bambara and Dogon peoples have multiplied. These conflicts killed more than 500 civilians in 2018, according to the United Nations.
*****
Mali’s general election this month looks uncertain, with rebels — partly inspired by Islamist jihadism — offering an alternative source of law and order in the central regions

oung men in yellow jackets meet at nightfall in Konna, near Mopti in central Mali. They divide into groups of eight or nine and, armed with sticks, machetes and walkie-talkies, set off on motorcycles to patrol the streets until dawn. This ‘brigade’ of 500 volunteers aims to provide security in Konna, which the gendarmerie abandoned nine months ago. The army, its nearest outpost 50km away, visits only rarely.

The brigade was formed even before the gendarmes left, because people were alarmed by rising theft and murder rates. Yaya Traoré, a brigade leader and deputy mayor of Konna said: ‘On 23 March 2016 a marabout was killed in the town centre. The next day, a shopkeeper was murdered. The gendarmes did nothing. That’s when we decided to take charge....
....MUCH MORE

Something's up but we don't know what.
Oftentimes what appears to be factional fighting, such as that in Nigeria or Kashmir is just that, factional fighting. But sometimes there is opportunity behind the headlines.
And if it matters the U.S. Establishment's paper of choice (and favorite of CIA story spinners) the Washington Post is telling their version of what's up, fairly aggressively" 
What's behind the escalating ethnic violence in Mali? Here's what you need to know.
Washington Post|6 days ago
Mali has been struck by ethnic violence the scope of which it's never before seen: On March 23, the predominately ethnic Fulani villages of Ogossagou and Welingara in central Mali were destroyed

Analysis | Mali's government collapsed. Here's what that tells us about parliamentary coalitions in Africa.
Washington Post|4 days ago
In March, armed men attacked a village in central Mali, killing at least 130 people and burning their homes, part of a cycle of escalating violence between ethnic groups. Soon after, a retaliatory .
And Burundi? We dropped the final Easter Egg with the headline of January, 2018's "So, Why Were the NGO's and the Transnational Orgs. Making Noise About Burundi A Couple Years Ago? (RBW: LON)" and told the story relayed above.