Bridgewater's Dalio Cuts His Odds of a Recession Occurring Before the Next U.S. Presidential Election.

Our bet, from two years ago had the U.S. stock market peaking this year and a recession to follow in 2020.
We'll be revisiting that prognostication.
Right now though, from Institutional Investor, February 28:

Ray Dalio Slashes Recession Forecast

Famed hedge fund manager Ray Dalio is feeling more optimistic about the U.S. economy.

The founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund firm, wrote in LinkedIn post Wednesday evening that he has lowered his odds of the U.S. falling into a recession before the country’s next presidential election. Citing recent market weakness and the resulting gentler policy adopted by the U.S. Federal Reserve, Dalio wrote that he now believes the chances of a recession happening before the 2020 election are about 35 percent.

Previously, the co-chief investment officer and co-chairman of Bridgewater Associates believed the likelihood of a pre-election recession was greater than 50 percent.

“Starting about 18 months ago I had assessed the risk of a recession before the next presidential election to be over 50 percent because we at Bridgewater calculated that a) the growth spurt would be temporary and fade and b) the Fed’s policies in response to the growth spurt would drive asset prices and then the economy down,” Dalio wrote....

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