Monday, March 25, 2019

Cows and Pigs and Insights from Alltech’s Global Feed Survey

The survey was released a couple months ago so we're tardy getting to it but what with tariffs and floods and all the things that happen in the world I have a feeling we're going to be referring back to the baseline numbers.
Via Farm Journal: Pork, January 25:
Eight countries, China, U.S., Brazil, Russia, India, Mexico, Spain and Turkey, produce 55% of the world’s feed and have 59% of the world’s feed mills. ( Lori Hays )
Global feed production is at an all-time high. In the 2019 Global Feed Survey, Alltech estimates a strong 3% growth to 1.068 billion metric tons of feed produced. This is the third consecutive year the survey exceeded the billion-ton production mark.

The feed industry has seen 14.6% growth over the past five years, says Dr. Mark Lyons, during the media webinar Tuesday. As the population grows, so does the middle class, which is well reflected in an increase in overall protein consumption.

Eight countries, China, U.S., Brazil, Russia, India, Mexico, Spain and Turkey, produce 55% of the world’s feed and have 59% of the world’s feed mills.
Here’s a brief look at the top trends from the survey:
China Remains Top Feed Producer and User
The world’s largest producer and consumer of feed has faced clear challenges in its pig herd with African swine fever (ASF) and foot-and-mouth disease in cattle. But overall, this year the country saw only a small decline of 0.4% in animal feed production.
China maintained status as the top feed-producing country in the world with 187.89 million metric tons, 10 million metric tons more than the U.S. More than 42% of the country’s feed production goes to pigs. ASF has only further accelerated China’s move toward larger, more professional farms and improved cost-efficient pork production. While feed production growth might not be as high this year as one might expect, the feed-cost ratio has improved dramatically.
The survey only showed a small portion of the ASF’s effect on feed use and demand. Lyons said some industry estimates are predicting a loss of up to 30% of China’s hog production in 2019 and 2020.
“That’s something for us to think about. Even if as that pork is removed from the market, we recognize that exports can only represent a certain percentage of the picture. The Chinese market is so dominant and so large, there’s few countries can export enough pork to make up that gap,” he said.

China’s dairy and beef feed production also both declined by 17%. China’s dairy industry is struggling as dairy farmers try to balance high priced inputs with poor returns from milk processors. The beef industry’s decline indicates the displacement of local production with both cheaper imports and higher quality imported meats. China’s layer and broiler industries also saw small declines of 11% and 5% in feed production, respectively.

Regional changes:

  • North America, 2% growth
  • Latin America, 1% Growth
  • Europe, 4% Growth
  • Africa, 5% Growth
  • Middle East, 2% Growth
  • Asia Pacific, 3% Growth