Tuesday, February 19, 2019

"AQR Quants Gaze Into Crystal Ball, See ‘Soberingly Low’ Returns"

No worries, just frontload the next two decades in 2019 please.
We'll deal with 2025 when we get to it.

From Bloomberg, Feb. 6:
  • 60/40 portfolio to earn 2.9% real return, according to report
  • Cheaper stock prices partially offset by lower growth forecast
If the wizards at AQR Capital Management LLC are right, on the current trajectory the next few years will be a struggle for investors seeking the kind of returns they enjoyed in the “rosier past.”
The $196 billion quantitative hedge fund this week updated its assumptions for major asset classes, and at first glance the outlook has brightened somewhat:...

...The trouble is, the improvements over last year are mainly due to cheaper prices after 2018’s annus horribilis. AQR expects a traditional 60/40 portfolio of U.S. assets to earn just 2.9 percent after inflation over the medium term, compared with a long-term average of 5 percent....MORE