Wednesday, October 24, 2018

"China seeks framework for November deal with Trump"

If the U.S. and China were to come to some sort of agreement, and there is reason to believe both sides desire that outcome, if it comes to pass we would see a knee-jerk up move of maybe 1000 points on the DJIA and an even bigger pop, maybe 10%, in Shanghai.

From the Asia Times:
Beijing may be ready to trade short-term concessions and bide its time until it is far and away the world’s largest economy

Ahead of a possible meeting next month between US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, the White House tempered any optimism that a trade truce with Beijing is imminent when top economic advisor Larry Kudlow accused China on Sunday of doing “nothing” to defuse trade tensions.

But some Chinese officials and government advisers recently emphasized that China will show patience in addressing American trade demands, postponing if necessary some of its plans to become self-sufficient in high-tech industry.

Raising per capita income from the present US$9,000 a year to mid-five figures over the next ten years or so is the country’s top priority, and the leadership views trade war with the United States as a distraction. China, they believe, is prepared to make concessions to American demands for changes in the country’s industrial policy without changing its long-term trajectory....MUCH MORE 
My favorite Chinese translator says "Hey, we have a 5000 year history of this stuff. Let President Trump think he out-macho'd us, give him something he can hold up as a win and we get back to the plan".
Makes sense to me.

I received no response when I asked "Plan? What plan?"I don't think she was referencing the per cap income thing (above)