BOM's latest was:
Issued - 9 October 2018From IRI/Columbia Uni:
El Niño ALERT activated
IRI ENSO Forecast
2018 October Quick Look
Published: October 11, 2018
A monthly summary of the status of El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, based on the NINO3.4 index (120-170W, 5S-5N)
Use the navigation menu on the right to navigate to the different forecast sections
While ENSO-neutral conditions prevailed in September, signs of El Niño increased in early October 2018, as east-central tropical Pacific SSTs warmed to slightly above-average levels. A key atmospheric variable, the low level wind anomaly, also showed westerly anomalies in the last two weeks. The subsurface water temperature was above-average, and increased further recently. The official CPC/IRI outlook calls for a 70-75% chance of El Niño development during October/November, continuing through winter 2018-19.
An El Niño watch is in effect. The latest forecasts of statistical and dynamical models collectively favor El Niño development during fall, most likely maintaining weak strength through winter; forecasters agree with this scenario....MUCH MORE
