From Artemis. Aug. 11:
The U.S. National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is the
latest to reduce its forecast for the numbers of storms and hurricanes
that will occur during the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, as its Climate Prediction Center raises the likelihood of a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60%.
Back in May when NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center first forecast
activity levels for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season it had given a
25% chance of a below-average level of storms forming.
At that time NOAA was calling for between 10 to 416 named storms, 5
to 9 hurricanes and 1 to 4 major hurricanes during the season.
Now, with this latest update NOAA has reduced all of the numbers, now
calling for 9 to 13 named storms, 4 to 7 hurricanes and 0 to 2 major
hurricanes during the entire 2018 hurricane season.
“Conditions in the ocean and the atmosphere are conspiring to produce
a less active Atlantic hurricane season than initially predicted in
May,” NOAA explained.
“There are still more storms to come – the hurricane season is far
from being over. We urge continued preparedness and vigilance,” added
Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate
Prediction Center.
With the new forecast figures, NOAA now not only gives a much higher
probability of a below-average hurricane season for the Atlantic in
2018, but it also says that the chance of a near-normal season is now at
30%, while the chance of an above-normal season has dropped from 35% to
just 10%.
So far this season we’ve seen four named tropical storms, two of
which reached hurricane strength. NOAA notes that an average hurricane
season produces 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes,
including three major hurricanes....MORE
We'll be back with the IRI ENSO 'Quick Look' later today.
