Friday, September 23, 2016

Natural Gas: EIA Weekly Supply/Demand Report

October futures $ 2.988  -0.002, soon to be front month Novembers $3.057  -0.004.

From the Energy Information Administration:
Prices increase outside Marcellus. This report week (Wednesday, September 14 to Wednesday, September 21), the Henry Hub spot price rose 10¢ from $3.04/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.14/MMBtu yesterday. At the Chicago Citygate, prices increased 17¢ from $2.92/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.09/MMBtu yesterday. Prices at PG&E Citygate in Northern California gained 14¢, rising from $3.42/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.56/MMBtu yesterday. The price at SoCal Citygate rose 14¢ from $2.95/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.09/MMBtu yesterday.

Boston sees continued price swings. At the Algonquin Citygate, which serves Boston-area consumers, prices went up 18¢ from $3.06/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.24/MMBtu yesterday. However, prices averaged a low of $2.37/MMBtu on Friday, heading into the weekend. Similar price volatility has been occurring for the past few weeks, and tends to coincide with swings in regional power burn. At the Transcontinental Pipeline Zone 6 trading point for New York, prices increased 15¢ from $1.35/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.50/MMBtu yesterday after dipping to 96¢ on Friday.
Tennessee Zone 4 Marcellus spot prices decreased 5¢ from $1.21/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.16/MMBtu yesterday. Prices at Dominion South in northwest Pennsylvania remained steady at $1.20/MMBtu.

October contract closes above $3. At the Nymex, the price of the October 2016 contract increased 17¢, from $2.889/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.057/MMBtu yesterday, the highest front-month contract price since January 2015. The price of the 12-month strip averaging October 2016 through September 2017 futures contracts climbed 11¢ to $3.207/MMBtu.

Supply falls. According to data from PointLogic, the average total supply of natural gas fell by 1% compared with the previous report week. Dry natural gas production decreased by 1% from the last report week. Average net imports from Canada decreased by 2%.

U.S. consumption remains steady. Total U.S. consumption of natural gas was unchanged from last week, averaging 59.4 Bcf/d, according to data from PointLogic. Power burn declined by 3% week over week, and industrial sector consumption stayed constant, averaging 19.4 Bcf/d. Natural gas exports to Mexico decreased 5%.

U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. The natural gas pipeline flows to the Sabine Pass liquefaction terminal averaged 0.2 Bcf/d this report week, 82% lower than last week. The pipeline deliveries declined last week as the terminal prepared for planned maintenance. The maintenance was scheduled to improve performance of the wet/dry flare systems shared by Trains 1 and 2, and to carry out maintenance of other facilities. During maintenance, which is expected to last approximately four weeks, both liquefaction trains will be completely shut down. However, the terminal may still receive nominal natural gas deliveries—10 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) to 100 MMcf/d—as part of the commissioning of Train 3. The terminal had no LNG exports last week since the last LNG-carrying vessel departed the facility on September 11.
more price data

Storage: Injections to storage continue at slower-than-normal rate. Net injections into storage totaled 52 Bcf, compared with the five-year (2011–15) average net injection of 83 Bcf and last year's net injections of 96 Bcf during the same week. Working gas stocks total 3,551 Bcf, 268 Bcf above the five-year average and 140 Bcf above last year at this time. When the refill season began on April 1, working gas stocks were 874 Bcf above the five-year average....