Thursday, March 31, 2016

USDA Corn Reports: This Ain't Rock and Roll, This Is Genocide

I'm not sure why we have David Bowie doing the commodities report but it fits for the long corn crowd.*
A twofer from AgWeb:

2016 Prospective Plantings: Corn Acres Up 6% at 93.6 Million Acres

 Corn Planted Acreage Up 6 Percent from 2015

Soybean Acreage Down Less Than 1 Percent

All Wheat Acreage Down 9 Percent

All Cotton Acreage Up 11 Percent

Corn planted area for all purposes in 2016 is estimated at 93.6 million acres, up 6 percent from last year. If realized, this will represent the highest planted acreage in the United States since 2013, and will be the third highest planted acreage in the United States since 1944.

Soybean planted area for 2016 is estimated at 82.2 million acres, down less than 1 percent from last year.

Compared with last year, planted acreage intentions are down or unchanged in 23 of the 31 estimating States.

All wheat planted area for 2016 is estimated at 49.6 million acres, down 9 percent from 2015. The 2016 winter wheat planted area, at 36.2 million acres, is down 8 percent from last year and down 1 percent from the previous estimate....MORE
And the storage reports:
2016 March Grain Stocks: Corn, Soybeans, Wheat
Corn is just off the low for the day, 352-2 down 14-6; wheat is up 2-6 at 466-6
March 29 
"US weather to speed up corn sowings - but bodes ill for wheat"
As Grandmother used to say, "If it's not one tham ding it's another".

Wheat 472-4 up 1-4
Corn   369-0 down 1-4
Right now this stuff is just noise although Thursday's planting intentions report might get prices jumping around.
*See also March 21's "Agricultural Futures: 'Hedge funds cover ag shorts en masse...'":
They've fallen into my trap....
March 16
Grains: Allendale Planting Intentions Survey--Farmers Are Planting Fencerow to Fencerow
Corn     368-2 down 0-2
Wheat  470-6 down 6-4
We're looking for a drift down into late summer, then a weather related boost.
March 8
ABN Amro Says Grain Prices Have Bottomed After Four Year Decline
We think ABN are early, there is just so much stuff around although we expect some late summer La Nina weather to give us a long trade.
Feb. 26
USDA Chief Economist Makes A Case For Farmland 
It's too early.
Even though we think we'll see some upward price pressure come late summer, after a meandering downtrend, the reality of farmland investment is that it is only worth a multiple of the cash flow.
(unless you're on the edge of a metro area and have some non-public zoning info)