Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Former Soros Sidekick Buying Assets In Russia

From FT Alphaville:

Jim Rogers’ contrarian view on Russia
The rouble may be down more than 25 per cent versus the dollar this year, but the currency’s recent slide won’t be enough to dissuade legendary investor and author Jim Rogers from adding to his Russia investments.
Rogers told the Financial Times on Tuesday his bullish case was based on the view there had been a fundamental change in the Kremlin’s mindset when it came to the treatment of foreign investors. This, he said, had led him to about-turn on his previous scepticism about the country’s potential and views he had set from the moment he had first visited the country over 46 years ago.

“They understand that they can’t treat investors the same way Stalin did anymore, and that you have to treat them properly.”
Rogers caveated the point with the assertion that investors had at least been treated better until the international community implemented sanctions on Russia in response to its activities in Ukraine earlier this year. But he added he had no doubt the current crisis would pass like most other crises he had experienced over his lifetime. He said his views were ultimately based on looking to the long term because he was a terrible market timer, and his aim was to invest in an economy while it was still in a depressed state.

Rogers’ Russian investments now include stakes in fertiliser maker Phosagro, airliner Aeroflot, a Russia ETF and the Russian stock exchange, but he said was looking to expand into different sectors as well.

With respect to his position in Phosagro, Rogers’ cited GMO’s Jeremy Grantham longstanding position that because phosphorus cannot be made or substituted there isn’t enough of the vital fertiliser element to serve the needs of a growing global farming industry....MUCH MORE
 On peak fertilizer Rogers and Grantham are either very, very early or flat out wrong.
See for example the backround pieces:
"Has The Earth Ever Run Out of a Natural Resource?"
"Jeremy Grantham on Tesla, Fertilizer Wars" (and lessons learned from 47 years at the market)
The Lore and Lure of Fertilizer: A Century of Potash Intrigue (POT; MOS; IPI)

and more importantly:
Vaclav Smil Takes on Jeremy Grantham Over Peak Fertilizer