Monday, November 24, 2014

"Evidence of an Early December Weather Pattern Digression Lessening Heat and Natural Gas Demand"

That is the title of the PDF linked by Bespoke.
Over the years I've mentioned we follow the temperature outside the NYMEX, here's December 2011's recitation:
"Natural Gas traders looking for Old Man Winter... "
*When options on the futures were introduced in 1992 a buddy of mine eschewed all weather reports from the Midwest and Great Lakes figuring that the only temp that mattered was whether or not the traders felt cold at the exchange.

He retired rich, I don't know if there's a correlation.
From Bespoke Investment Group, Nov. 21, 2014:

Is The Short Term Top in on Natural Gas? covers weather forecasts and patterns for Connecticut and New York and is run by Jacob Meisel, a sophomore at Harvard College.  Jacob has close to 8 years of experience already forecasting weather both for the CT/NY region and for the nation.  As far as forecasting sites for the region are concerned, gives the best detail and explanation behind its forecasts, allowing the reader to see not only the what of the forecast, but the why as well.  So, if the forecast is calling for snow, Jacob will discuss all the variables involved in the forecast, and detail what factors need to break in order for the given forecast to pan out.  His new premium service provides daily, detailed forecasts for residents of the CT/NY area relying on in-depth weather analysis, and his school closing percentages during winter storms have put him on the map for anyone in the region that has kids!

Jacob also discusses patterns impacting the entire country.  A case in point was a discussion he was having today regarding the weather patterns driving the current snap of cold weather for much of the country.  Signs are pointing to a shift that could cause temperatures in the early part of December to be closer to, or even above, average.  If this occurs it would be nearly the exact opposite of what most forecasters are calling for....MORE
HT: Abnormal Returns

Here's the recent action via  FinViz:

Here is the forecast temperature, note the (lack of) temperature anomaly over 10282 (NYMEX zip):