Saxo Bank Chief Economist on "The Coming Major Slowdown in Germany - How to Play It"

From Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis:

A huge slowdown in Germany is on the way, yet few see it. Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at Saxo bank writes via email ...

Back from major trip to Brazil, Uruguay, US and Spain. The one thing which to me is being ignored by the market is the coming slow-down in Germany. The market can of course go up in times of weaker growth, but my big “thing” is that no one believes Germany economically is slowing despite very negative macro changes in the last twelve months:

The China rebalancing will cost Germany export volume. Germany has the most expensive energy policy in Europe – a drive away from atomic power dependency to a less obvious dependency on Russian gas. The Ukraine crisis impacts Germany. According to the Federation of German Wholesale, Foreign Trade and Services (BGA) about 6.200 German companies are doing business in Russia. The coming Chinese devaluation of the Yuan will significantly lift Chinese import prices.

I had to write a monthly OP-ED for Swiss Financial newspaper and as I sat down to verify my long held opinion that Germany would slow-down in Q4 I was surprised to find Germany already seeing relative dramatic slow-down signs...MORE