Thursday, May 29, 2014

EIA Storage Report: Natural Gas Injections a Bit High, Futures Say Meh

We had estimates coming in at 107-111 bcf but as always it's the second derivative that matters: not the actual number and not what the other guy thinks the number will be but how Guy the second reacts to what he thinks Guy the first is thinking.
Front futures $4.594 down 2.1 cents.
The headline at Natural Gas Intelligence is:

Bears Barely Moving Following Stout EIA Storage Report
Natural gas futures dropped Thursday morning following the release of government storage figures that were somewhat on the high side of what traders were expecting.

The injection report of 114 Bcf was about 4 Bcf higher than market surveys and independent analyst projections. For the week ended May 23, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an increase of 114 Bcf in its 10:30 a.m. EDT report. July futures fell to a low of $4.529 shortly after the number was released but by 10:45 a.m. July was at $4.587, down 2.8 cents from Wednesday's settlement.

Prior to the release of the data, analysts were looking for a build just above 110 Bcf. A Reuters survey of 24 traders and analysts revealed an increase of 110 Bcf with a range of 100 Bcf to 115 Bcf. United ICAP forecast a build of 113 Bcf and Bentek Energy's flow model anticipated an injection of 111 Bcf.

A New York floor trader remarked that with the reaction to the storage report "nothing has really changed. We are still in the range of $4.25 to $4.75. It's not an 'a-ha' moment. It was not a significant development."...MORE
From the Energy Information Administration:
Working gas in storage was 1,380 Bcf as of Friday, May 23, 2014, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 114 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 748 Bcf less than last year at this time and 922 Bcf below the 5-year average of 2,302 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 438 Bcf below the 5-year average following net injections of 64 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 374 Bcf below the 5-year average of 918 Bcf after a net injection of 31 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 110 Bcf below the 5-year average after a net addition of 19 Bcf. At 1,380 Bcf, total working gas is below the 5-year historical range...MORE
Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5-Year Range