From NOAA:
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, 8 May 2014
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch
Synopsis: Chance of El Niño increases during the remainder of the year, exceeding 65% during summer.
We looked at the plume of ENSO model predictions in Wednesday's "Large, globally diverse, reinsurers continue to avoid the worst".
