Friday, May 3, 2013

"This Year’s Kentucky Derby Picks (And a Brand New Way to Bet on Them)"

From Freakonomics:
Every year I post my picks for the Kentucky Derby.  Last year I actually did well, for a change.  In a twenty-horse field, I picked three horses to do well, and two of them ended finishing first and second. The winner was 15-1.  I also made a correct prediction as to which horse would finish last.  I got that one right as well.

So here we go again…

Let me start by saying that the crystal ball (actually the computer algorithm) is a little fuzzy this year.  There are four horses that all look equally good to me: Falling Sky, Java’s War, Itsmyluckyday, and Revolutionary.  All will be longshots, I suspect, with odds between 15-1 and 25-1.

The model also kind of likes Verrazano, who might be the favorite in the race.  If I were betting, I might include him in my exotic bets....MORE

That's Secretariat. He won the Derby.
Set the record,  1:59.40.
Tomorrow is the 40th anniversary of that race.

He went on to win the Preakness.
Set the record,  1:53.

Then he won the Belmont.
Set the record,  2:24 flat.
Also the fastest 1 1/2 mile race ever timed, anywhere.