Thursday, February 24, 2011

"Wheat Resumes Plunge as African Unrest Drives Away Speculators"

In Chicago the futures are down 5 3/4 cents to $7.925.
Yesterday's "Okay Kids, I Think it's Safe to Get Back in the Water" said:
Three trades:
Long the futures with SPX at 1304.49 (missed the 1299 bottom)
Long FSLR 170's with the stock at $162.10 dn $2.00 (low $159.90)
Wheat at $793.50 (KC's already gone green)
So we're down a penny on wheat, the S&P futures are indicating a down 5 open, around 1300 even and in premarket action FSLR is down 2 cents at $163.00.
As I said in a 2007 post:
When I think I know what's going on I have to consciously remind myself of General Custer's comment as he rode into the valley of the Little Big Horn, variously reported, here's Time's version: "Hurrah, boys, we've got them! We'll finish them up and then go home."
From Bloomberg:

Wheat extended a collapse and corn and soybeans also fell as traders speculated that a jump in energy costs caused by protests across North Africa and the Middle East will curb growth and demand for grains.
Riots already ousted leaders in Egypt, the world’s biggest wheat importer, and in Tunisia, and opposition groups have seized control of eastern cities in Libya. While wheat traded in Chicago dropped 10 percent in the past four sessions, crude oil traded in New York jumped 14 percent.

Grain prices surged last month as North African and Middle East nations bought more shipments to damp a surge in domestic prices that helped spark the protests from Morocco to Bahrain. Speculators including hedge funds last week cut their bets on higher wheat prices by 20 percent, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show.

“Everyone has been bullish corn and wheat for an extended period,” Michael Pitts, commodity sales director at National Australia Bank Ltd., said by phone from Sydney today. The unrest in North Africa and the Middle East meant “they really ignored some positive fundamentals and sold off.”...MORE