Friday, December 18, 2009

BUY OR SELL-Does First Solar's forecast make it time to buy? (FSLR)

As I said yesterday, if FSLR doesn't start performing, it risks breaking down. On Thursday the stock closed down 7/10% versus the Nasdaq's 1.2%. That outperformance has reversed this morning with the Nas up 1% and FSLR down 4/10% This kind of action is is very negative considering the dog-and-pony spin on Wednesday.
The first story is from Reuters:

* Co announces plans to boost output, gives 2010 forecast

* Some analysts wary of co's business of building projects

* Shares close down 0.74 pct at $135.73

By Laura Isensee

LOS ANGELES, Dec 17 (Reuters) - U.S. solar panel maker industry bellwether First Solar Inc (FSLR.O) sees a stronger year in 2010 and will boost its output in 2011.

Some analysts believe that the expansion plans that the company's executives announced on Wednesday are a bullish sign and that its forecast on profit margins for its solar panels make it a good time to buy First Solar.

But other analysts see trouble ahead with oversupply in the sector. First Solar's Chief Executive Robert Gillette told analysts on Wednesday that supply of panels will exceed global demand, which the executive estimated at 7.5 gigawatts. [ID:nN16126556]

Adding to concerns is how First Solar's business of building projects will play out for the company's profits, since its profit margins from solar farm construction are much lower than margins from its core business of making thin film solar panels that convert sunlight to electricity....MORE

Here are yesterday's First Solar posts:

"Lazard Capital Markets ups First Solar profit view" and "EDF taps €1 billion in solar project financing: exclusive use of First Solar modules" (FSLR)

"Raymond James Downgrades First Solar (FSLR) to Outperform" JPMorgan ups Earnigs Forecast (FSLR)

First Solar: More Analysts Weigh in: Cowen Sees Stock +40% vs. Market; Pacific Crest "Close to Fair Value" (FSLR)

First Solar: More Analysts Weigh in: Cowen Sees Stock +40% vs. Market; Pacific Crest "Close to Fair Value" (FSLR)