Wednesday, January 28, 2009

People I Listen To: "Albert Edwards: Back in the bear camp"

Some earlier posts featuring Mr. Edwards:

May 8, 2008
This Week’s Advice: Canned Food, Guns and a Ham Radio
June 26, 2008
Société Générale: “We see a y-shaped global recession. We are going down before looping backwards”
September 5, 2oo8
"Meltdown"-Société Générale
September, 2008
Société Générale: Prepare for the Great Unwind, part Deux

Today's story at Investment Postcards from Cape Town:

Albert Edwards, London-based strategist of Société Générale, has always been a firm favourite among Investment Postcards’ readers. His latest research report appeared a few days ago and saw him firmly back in the bear camp after turning short-term bullish at the end of October. (See the previous posts “Albert Edwards: Turning More Bullish” [October 24] and “Market Fundamentals are Appalling” [July 5]).

Edwards’s “Global Strategy” report is sub-titled “Technicals say it is time to bail out. Cut exposure and prepare for rout. US depression looking likely. China’s 2009 implosion could get ugly.” The executive summary below provides the gist of his thinking.

“After increasing our equity exposure at the end of October we believe that the market is set to quickly slide sharply towards our 500 target for the S&P. While economic data in developed economies increasingly reflects depression rather than a deep recession, the real surprise in 2009 may lie elsewhere. It is becoming clear that the Chinese economy is imploding and this raises the possibility of regime change. To prevent this, the authorities would likely devalue the Yuan. A subsequent trade war could see a re-run of the Great Depression....MORE

The trade war scenario is critical. Watch the politicians.

From our November 18, 2008 post "30 reasons for Great Depression 2 by 2011":

Usually I am optimistic but there are so many ways for the politicians to screw up the mess from what Wall Street screwed up that four consecutive quarters of 10% year-over-year GDP decline is not out of the question, a couple years down the road.

From our January 15 post "A Very Smart (and very scary) Post on What's to Come":

I'll get you started with the first few paragraphs but the whole thing is worth your time:

how stimulus might lead to trade war
martin wolf's latest piece in the ft has touched off some very thoughtful commentary which, to complete the circle, is summed up at ft alphaville.

starting out with the mathematics of stimulus:...

And Monday's "California's "train wreck" a golden opportunity?":

...California also benefited more from the China bubble than any other state and again, won't snap back, especially if the idea of carbon tariffs should become law....