Tuesday, January 20, 2009

"...Don’t Count on Mexico to Supplant Mid-East Crude"

That's the headline at Environmental Capital and it is one more reason I'm starting to think through the investment ramifications of last week's post "U.S. military report warns 'sudden collapse' of Mexico is possible" which linked to a story from the El Paso Times.
Here's another EPT headline:

From Knowedge@Wharton, Nov. '08:

And from Bloomberg, Jan. 19:

Another story, this time from The Trumpet, Dec. 31, 2008:

Will Mexico Fail in 2009 or 2010?
Mexican officials could be left looking pretty smart if the price of oil keeps falling. Earlier this year, Mexico locked in contracts to sell its oil for $70 per barrel. Since the market price for a barrel recently fell to $35.35 per barrel, America’s largest trade partner south of the border is raking it in. Unfortunately, the fun is about to end for the U.S.’s Mexican neighbors—and that has big implications for America....MORE
Finally, here's the headline story:
Whether the calls for reducing America’s oil dependence on the Middle East that played such a big part in Barack Obama’s campaign will find a home in today’s inaugural address is an open question. But one thing is increasingly clear: America won’t be able to count much on Mexico, still its third-biggest supplier, to help it wean off Persian Gulf oil.

The Mexican oil industry is in steep decline. The huge production falls seen through the first nine months of the year continued in the fourth quarter, Bloomberg says, as Mexico’s state oil company is set to report its steepest annual production declines since World War II. Mexican production will fall from more than 3 million barrels a day in 2007 to about 2.8 million barrels in 2008, Bloomberg estimates....MORE
Not the most stable situation, there on our southern border.