Monday, August 6, 2007

CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WINE QUALITY

Abstract. From 1950 to 1999 the majority of the world’s highest quality wine-producing regions experienced growing season warming trends. Vintage quality ratings during this same time period increased significantly while year-to-year variation declined.

While improved winemaking knowledge and husbandry practices contributed to the better vintages it was shown that climate had, and will likely always have, a significant role in quality variations.

This study revealed that the impacts of climate change are not likely to be uniform across all varieties and regions. Currently, many European regions appear to be at or near their optimum growing season temperatures, while the relationships are less defined in the New World viticulture regions.

For future climates, model output for global wine producing regions predicts an average warming of 2 ◦C in the next 50 yr. For regions producing highquality grapes at the margins of their climatic limits, these results suggest that future climate change will exceed a climatic threshold such that the ripening of balanced fruit required for existing varieties and wine styles will become progressively more difficult.

In other regions, historical and predicted climate changes could push some regions into more optimal climatic regimes for the production of current varietals. In addition, the warmer conditions could lead to more poleward locations potentially becoming more conducive to grape growing and wine production.

The rest of the paper is here. 25 page PDF

China and Greenhouse Gas Emissions

China is about to emerge as the world's leading emitter of greenhouse gases, a position the United States has held since 1890. Now is the time for China to take the lead in finding a way to reduce global emissions, which the United States has thus far failed to do. It should start by imposing a sizable tax on the carbon content of its fossil fuel consumption and by heading an effort among other major trading countries to do the same.

China would gain in several ways from implementing a substantial carbon tax. By reducing its fossil fuel consumption, China would prevent the deaths of hundreds of thousands of citizens because of the short- and long-term consequences of air pollution from burning coal. Investments in energy-efficient durable goods, encouraged by a carbon tax, would generate energy savings over the lengthy life of these investments.

The demands of China's rapid economic growth are outstripping the country's ability to provide the infrastructure necessary for continued growth; a carbon tax would slow short-term growth and allow infrastructure investments to catch up. Ultimately, this would lead to greater long-term growth. If China fears a drag on its economy from the carbon tax, it could make such a tax partially or fully revenue neutral by reducing other taxes....

From the Washington Post

Ethanol is a Budget Buster

Increased Mandate and Subsidies Would Raise Food Prices and
Strain Federal Budget
By William Yeatman*

News story after news story highlights the impact of ethanol mandates on food prices in grocery stores across America. The story line is familiar. Ethanol is made from corn, and the new federal ethanol mandate is raising demand for corn and thereby exerting an upwards pressure on the price of corn.

Costlier corn, in turn, affects the price of a wide
variety of groceries. For some products, like soda, corn syrup is a direct input, and higher corn prices are raising production costs. Corn is also a major feedstock for cattle, hogs, and chickens, so higher corn prices are raising production costs for a wide array of products, such as milk, eggs, cheese, beef, pork, and poultry.

Higher corn prices are also encouraging many farmers to plant more acres of corn, which means fewer acres of soybeans, other grains, and even cotton. Lower supplies of these commodities are already reverberating throughout the economy, with reports, for example, of higher beer prices. These impacts will intensify if Congress raises the current ethanol mandate of 7.5 billion gallons to 36 billion gallons.

The link between ethanol mandates and higher food prices has been demonstrated amply in the media. What has received scant media attention is the fact that the increased ethanol mandate proposed by President Bush, passed by the Senate, and now before the House, is a budget buster; it would cost American taxpayers almost a quarter trillion dollars or more over the next 15 years.

Given that entitlement spending is set to skyrocket
as baby boomers retire, the enormous costs of ethanol mandates threaten to become an unmanageable budget liability.

Table 1 shows the estimated aggregate federal budgetary costs of a 36 billion-gallon ethanol mandate. Much of the liability—nearly $150 billion—comes from a 51 cents-per gallon refundable tax credit. Other major budget costs include:

• $10.8 billion in future loan losses for loan guarantees for cellulosic ethanol plants;
• An estimated $17.7 billion for a strategic ethanol reserve to deal with the
production shortfalls in corn and biomass caused by droughts;
• And $23.9 billion in corn and cellulosic production subsidies.

This corn subsidy is startling. Corn farmers are receiving taxpayer subsidies simply for growing corn when ethanol mandates already assure them substantial profit margins by pushing up the price of corn!...

Four page PDF from the Competitive Enterprise Institute

The Power in the Carbon Tax

Successful laws to protect the environment are built on simple concepts. They discourage harmful behavior -- the dumping of sewage or industrial waste into bodies of water, the destruction of habitat, the emission of toxic chemicals -- by a variety of measures, all of which raise the cost of engaging in certain behavior. You can't develop land, and profit, if you're endangering a threatened animal. You have to dispose of chemical substances responsibly. And so on.

Good environmental law can also encourage good behavior: the development of alternative approaches, such as substances that cause less harm, or new technologies.

We should keep this in mind when discussing carbon. How do we raise the cost of emitting carbon, promoting conservation and efficiencies, and make alternatives more economically viable, thus addressing the problem of climate change?...

From the Washington Post

Sunday, August 5, 2007

Glass Half Empty: The Coming Water Wars

A picture really is worth a thousand words, especially if it's an INA Infographic by way of Princeton University.

European companies are not yet taking full advantage of carbon markets

IT SOMETIMES seems that plans for emissions trading are piling up even faster than the greenhouse gases they are designed to curb. In late July the first emissions exchanges in Australia and Canada opened, in anticipation of mandatory carbon-trading schemes in both countries. America already has a healthy voluntary carbon market, and will soon add an obligatory one for utilities in certain states. But the evidence from the most advanced such “cap-and-trade” programme, the European Union's Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), suggests that companies are struggling to make the most of carbon markets.

In theory, cap-and-trade schemes allow firms to reduce their emissions at the lowest possible cost. Governments put a limit on the amount firms can pollute, and issue an equivalent number of allowances. Those companies that find they do not have enough must either cut emissions or buy spare allowances from others. But for the system to work efficiently, firms must take advantage of all opportunities to reduce the costs of participation....

More from the Economist

Stick with Alt-Energy Through the Near-Term: Zacks

Checking in on the alternative energy [alt-energy] sector recently, we noticed that Zacks senior alt-energy analyst Jon Kolb is currently bullish on significant portions of his coverage. We spoke to him to find out where the alt-energy standouts are.

What’s the verdict on your alt-energy coverage at this point – Buy, Hold or Sell?

Oh, definitely Buy, at least in a few cases where I’ve recently updated my research reports on companies within my coverage. The growth potential for the solar industry as a whole, and Evergreen Solar (ESLR) in particular, remains a compelling story. Capacity expansion and near-term projected break-even earnings make it one of the fastest growing alternative energy stocks.

Where are you seeing the positive factors?

Many places: new multi-year sales contracts, a new operating facility at Massachusetts, capacity expansions at EverQ over the next few years, improving operating efficiencies, technological upgrades, and new silicon supply contracts. The company, through its crystalline silicon technology known as String Ribbon, offers solar modules which are used to generate electricity for on-grid and off-grid applications. These modules are designed for a range of solar electric power applications, including water pumping, communications, outdoor lighting, rural electrification, recreational vehicles, and stand-alone or grid-connected AC applications.

What are some of the other names you like in this space?

Well, staying in the solar arena for a moment, I also like Energy Conversion Devices (ENER). We remain optimistic about this company’s long-term potential success, given increased activity in solar power projects, and progress toward sustainable profitability in 2008.

There’s also Hawaii-based Hoku Scientific (HOKU). Since its inception, HOKU has focused its efforts on the design and development of fuel cell technologies, including its Hoku MEAs and Hoku Membranes. The products have all been developed internally by the research and development [R&D] team, leveraging both pre-existing publicly available technology and its own proprietary developments.

Are there still significant risks to owning alt-energy stocks at this point?...

More from Zacks.com

Russia and the Arctic

RUSSIA’s foray into the Arctic is an audacious geopolitical adventure, as popular at home as it is troubling for outsiders. At stake are the region’s natural riches, until now frozen both in law and in nature. But global warming is making them look more accessible. They may include 10 billion tonnes of oil and gas deposits, tin, manganese, gold, nickel, lead, platinum and diamonds, plus fish and perhaps even lucrative freight routes. Exploiting them will be technically tricky, and is probably decades away. But as the ice melts, the row is hotting up about who owns what’s underneath it.

...Even more startling, though, was Russia’s rhetoric. “The Arctic is ours and we should manifest our presence,” said Mr Chilingarov, a charismatic figure whom President Vladimir Putin has named as “presidential envoy” to the Arctic. “This is like placing a flag on the moon” said Russia’s Arctic and Antarctic Institute.
The stunt has no legal force. But it still scandalised Canada’s foreign minister, Peter MacKay. “This isn’t the 15th century,” he complained. “You can’t go around the world and just plant flags and say ‘We’re claiming this territory’.”...

From the Economist

Attention Attorneys: Make Big Money Off Of Global Warming

This post is for attorneys ONLY! If you are not an attorney, DO NOT read past the next line.
If you are a non-attorney citizen, we will be providing wire instructions to facilitate the transfer of what you mistakenly consider to be your money to its rightful place, attorney's bank accounts.

Huzzah, Huzzah!
The ‘‘New Direction for Energy Independence, National Security, and Consumer Protection Act’’ has passed the House!
Huzzah, Huzzah.

The bill contains, starting on page 291, The Most Wonderful Provision. Huzzah.

1 SEC. 6212. JUDICIAL REVIEW.

2 (a) FINAL AGENCY ACTION.—Any nondiscretionary
3 act or duty under this title or any amendment made by
4 this title is a final agency action for the purposes of judi-
5 cial review under chapter 7 of title 5, United States Code.
6 (b) VENUE FOR CERTAIN ACTIONS.—The United
7 States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Cir-
8 cuit shall have exclusive jurisdiction over any petition for
9 review of action of the Administrator in promulgating any
10 rule under subtitle A of this title.
11 (c) LIMITATIONS.—No action under chapter 7 of title
12 5, United States Code, may be commenced prior to 60
13 days after the date on which the plaintiff has given notice
14 to the Federal agency concerned of the alleged violation
15 of this title or any amendment made by this title.
16 (d) COMMON CLAIMS.—When civil actions arising
17 under this title or any amendment made by this title are
18 pending in the same court and involve one or more com-
19 mon questions of fact or common claims regarding the
20 same alleged Federal agency failure or failures to act, the
21 court may consolidate such claims into a single action for
22 judicial review. When civil actions arising under this title
23 or any amendment made by this title are pending in dif-
24 ferent districts and involve one or more common questions
25 of fact or common claims regarding the same alleged Fed-
26 eral agency failure or failures to act, such actions may

1 be consolidated pursuant to section 1407 of title 28,
2 United States Code.
3 (e) AGGRIEVED PERSONS.—A person shall be consid-
4 ered aggrieved within the meaning of this title or any
5 amendment made by this title for purposes of obtaining
6 judicial review under chapter 7 of title 5, United States
7 Code, if the person alleges—
8 (1) harm attributable to a Federal agency’s
9 failure to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions in ac-
10 cordance with the requirements under this title or
11 any amendment made by this title, or take other ac-
12 tions required under this title or any amendment
13 made by this title; or
14 (2) a Federal agency’s failure to collect and
15 provide information to the public as required by this
16 title or any amendment made by this title.
17 For purposes of this section, the term ‘‘harm’’ includes
18 any effect of global warming, currently occurring or at risk
19 of occurring, and the incremental exacerbation of any such
20 effect or risk that is associated with relatively small incre-
21 ments of greenhouse gas emissions, even if the effect or
22 risk is widely shared. An effect or risk associated with
23 global warming is ‘‘attributable’’ to a Federal agency’s
24 failure to act as described in paragraph (1) if the failure
25 to act results in larger emissions of greenhouse gases than

1 would have been emitted had the Federal agency followed
2 the requirements of this title or any amendment made by
3 this title, as any such incremental additional emissions will
4 exacerbate the pace, extent, and risks of global warming.
5 (f) REMEDY.—
6 (1) IN GENERAL.—In addition to the remedies
7 available under chapter 7 of title 5, United States
8 Code, a court may provide the remedies specified in
9 this subsection.
10 (2) PAYMENT.—In any civil action alleging a
11 violation of this title, if the court finds that an agen-
12 cy has significantly violated this title in its failure to
13 perform any nondiscretionary act or duty under this
14 title or any amendment made by this title, the court
15 may award a payment, payable by the United States
16 Treasury, to be used for a beneficial mitigation
17 project recommended by the plaintiff or to com-
18 pensate the plaintiff for any impact from global
19 warming suffered by the plaintiff. The total payment
20 for all claims by all plaintiffs in any such action
21 shall not exceed the amount provided in section
22 1332(b) of title 28, United States Code. A court
23 may deny a second payment under this section if the
24 court determines that the plaintiff has filed multiple
25 separate actions that could reasonably have been

1 combined into a single action. No payment may be
2 awarded under this paragraph for violations of an
3 agency’s obligation to collect or report information
4 to the public. No court may award any payment
5 under this paragraph in any given year if the cumu-
6 lative payments awarded by courts under this para-
7 graph in such year are equal to or greater than
8 $1,500,000.
9 (3) COSTS.—A court may award costs of litiga-
10 tion to any substantially prevailing plaintiff or to
11 any other plaintiff whenever the court determines
12 such an award is appropriate. Such an award is ap-
13 propriate when such litigation contributes to the
14 Federal agency’s compliance with this title or any
15 amendment made by this title. Costs of litigation in-
16 clude reasonable attorney fees and expert fees.
17 (4) EXCLUSIVE REMEDY.—Notwithstanding any
18 other provision of Federal law—
19 (A) no plaintiff who is awarded a payment
20 under this subsection for a failure to perform a
21 mandatory duty under this title or any amend-
22 ment made by this title may be awarded a pay-
23 ment for such failure under any other Federal
24 law; and

1 (B) no plaintiff may be awarded a pay-
2 ment under this subsection for a failure to per-
3 form a mandatory duty under this title or any
4 amendment made by this title if the plaintiff
5 has been awarded a payment for such failure
6 under any other Federal law.
7 (g) NO STATE COURT ACTION.—No person may
8 bring any action in State court alleging a violation of this
9 title or any amendment made by this title.
10 (h) INAPPLICABILITY TO PROCUREMENT PRO-
11 TESTS.—No action may be commenced under this section
12 objecting to a solicitation by a Federal agency for bids
13 or proposals for a proposed contract or to a proposed
14 award or the award of a contract or any alleged violation
15 of statute or regulation in connection with a procurement
16 or a proposed procurement if such action may be brought
17 by an interested party under section 1491(b)(1) of title
18 28, United States Code, or subchapter V of title 31,
19 United States Code.
20 (i) DEFINITION.—In this section, the term ‘‘person’’
21 means a United States person. In the case of an indi-
22 vidual, such term means a citizen or national of the United
23 States.

Huzzah. Now please form an orderly line to the left of the trough.
H.R. 3221
HT: Planet Gore
Huzzah.

Saturday, August 4, 2007

Falling temperatures hurting cotton crop

The cotton producers in the world’s largest cotton growing patch have said this year has been different. The weather has been cooler with temperatures so far failing to warm enough to optimally encourage cotton's fruit, its bolls, toward maturity.

Texas grows more cotton than any other state, and produces about a third of the nation's total.

Brad Heffington, a cotton farmer, said, "This is really an odd year. The cooler temperatures are not exactly ideal for cotton. It's not a major concern right now but it could have real serious implications down the road."

This will lead to reduced yields at harvest which begins at the end of September. "It could stand to be sunnier and warmer," Plains Cotton Growers spokesman Shawn Wade said.

Heat units, the measure of accumulated warmth on cotton plants throughout the growing season, are down 16 percent from normal for the three-month period that ended Tuesday.

From Bharat Textile

Green Investments-teaser

IT'S THAT RARE OPPORTUNITY to save humanity and make a killing.

The mere possibility has Silicon Valley's venture capitalists tripping over each other to offer cash to start-ups focused on Clean Technology, a fuzzy business category that now encompasses just about anything that might help stave off global warming and aid the environment: solar and wind-generated energy sources, air and water pollution-control devices, and alternative fuels made from just about any non-hydrocarbon-based item all qualify. Even electric sports cars seem to fit the bill.

Venture capitalists plunked down better than $1.5 billion in funding for clean tech in 2006, bringing ...

From Barrons

Funds say green is the color of money

The fight to save the planet from climate change is attracting a glut of new funds and money-raising as investors look for companies expected to profit from global warming and climate policies.

Established green funds, and new ones, are hot-footing around the city looking for money to invest in well-performing "green" or "clean tech" stocks, involved in low carbon energy like wind and solar, and other technologies in water and waste....

...Green sector stocks have generally performed well: Britain's largest 100 environmentally-focused stocks grew 20 percent between last August and June, according to the EnviroDaq index.

But is all the investment money making any difference to climate change?

"It's tip of the iceberg stuff in terms of climate impact because renewable energy worldwide is still around 2 to 3 percent of energy production, so not making a huge difference, but that's double where it was five years ago so it's a big increase in absolute terms," said Bruce Jenkyn-Jones, director of investments at Impax....

From Reuters

First Solar (FSLR) Dims

From great heights, falls come easy.

Despite announcing vastly improved second-quarter numbers, shares in high-flying First Solar (nasdaq: FSLR - news - people ) dropped 4.3%, or $4.88, to $107.69 on Wednesday.

As fundamentals go, the Phoenix, Ariz.-based solar energy company published "a pretty strong report," American Technology Research analyst John Hardy said. However, for a stock in the hot alternative energy sector that had risen more than 370% in the past six months, fundamentals may have little to do with how it trades.

Hardy suggested the stock may have been set up for a drop due to rumors of strong results that intensified as the date of the company's report approached....

...Deutsche Bank analyst Steve O'Rourke maintained his "hold" rating and said in a report that investors should expect a drop in the company's share price. However, he said, "we are strong believers in the company's technology, market position, and solid operational performance and outlook."

More from Forbes.com


Chinese-Saudi Deal in Doubt

China's Sinopec Group is to delay the scheduled launch of a $1.2bn refinery in Qingdao by at least nine months to September 2008, or later, reported Reuters. Saudi Aramco's future involvement as part of a joint venture and as a supplier of crude has been described as 'not certain' by a source close to the deal. Aramco was planning to acquire up to 25% of the 200,000 barrels per day refinery.

From AME Info

...One reason for the delay, the source said, was that Sinopec's new chairman, Su Shulin, wants to ensure the project meets tighter environmental standards as it is situated near the sailing site for the Olympics next August.

A second source, who put the delay to end of next year, linked the move to the sudden resignation in June of former chairman Chen Tonghai, an industry veteran Chinese media said was under investigation for alleged graft.

From the Gulf Daily News

Reid says he'll stop rural power projects

U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid told The Associated Press on Thursday he'll do "everything I can" to stop construction of three major coal-fired power plants in Nevada and will push for more alternative energy development.

It would make sense politically to support the proposed eastern Nevada projects but "I can't do it.

"All these power moguls want to do is to steal our air and water," Reid said, adding that the power plants might be good for economic development in rural areas "but this isn't good for Nevada. I can't comprehend how much coal would be used."...

And that is the reason giving away pollution permission under a Cap-and-Trade system is exactly what the special interests like USCAP want.

They think they own the sky and want the permits for free.

From the Ely Times

Jupiter boosts green fund, as new vehicle lists

Jupiter Asset Management has raised £24 million ($49 million) into its Green Investment Trust, bringing its assets under management to almost £60 million.

Meanwhile, a new environmental investment fund listed on London's Alternative Investment Market (AIM) today. Ludgate Environmental Fund raised £25.7 million, and will invest late-stage venture capital in clean-technology companies....

From Environmental Finance

In Race to Find Water, It's Science vs. 'Witchers'

...That's because Western states such as California and Arizona are experiencing a well-drilling boom, amid one of the driest stretches in years and a surge of new properties being built in areas off the municipal water system.

Property developers typically look to modern technology first, hiring geologists to search for water using high-tech tools such as satellite imagery and magnetotellurics (a method of creating images of things beneath the earth's surface).

But because their investments could flop without a water source, developers building luxury resorts, orchards and wineries off the water grid aren't taking any chances. Some are hiring witchers as well as geologists, pitting them against each other in the water hunt. Meanwhile, some well drillers have witchers on staff. Other drillers offer witcher referrals or subcontract with independent witchers.

Steve Arthur, vice president of Arthur & Orum Well Drilling Inc. in Fresno, Calif., says that witchers can be effective. "Our customers just want water and dowsers find water," says Mr. Arthur.

Delectus, the winery, hired Mr. Thompson after geologists' data purportedly led to dry wells. Mr. Thompson charges $200 an hour, plus $10 for each gallon per minute produced in a well he has located. He gets paid his hourly rate whether or not he finds water. When a well yields abundant water, he says he can make $7,500 in a day's work, though he sees only a couple such days a year....

From the Wall Street Journal Online

Russian oil supply threat - Europe can't choose between more or less

Russian oil producers have been losing oil output at Russia's onshore fields since February of this year, and a combination of tax, investment, and technical factors has led to a forecast of "dire straits", according to a new report by Moscow's Alfa Bank.

But these straits appear to be deeper and direr for oil consumers, than for Russia as a producer; especially since new oilfield developments are likely to swing the direction of oilfield growth in the direction of China. Korea, and Japan....

From MineWeb

Lukoil advances on Arctic

...After the installation arrive at the site, some 22 kilometres offshore the Varandey oil terminal, it will be mounted on the base leg and will be connected to two underwater pipelines, whereby the oil will be fed from the already existing onshore tanks.

Varandey is located on the Barents Sea coast in the Nenets Autonomous District in the Russian Arctic.

The Varandey Oil Export Terminal is designed for sea export of oil produced by Lukoil onshore in the north of Nenets Autonomous District. Currently, Lukoil is increasing the terminal capacity up to 12 million tons of oil per year.

It is expected that the new offshore loading installation will start working by the end of this year. The oil will be exported in ice-classed vessels to Murmansk, or Finnmark in northern Norway, for re-loading to bigger oil tankers and then sail the shortest route, around the coast of Norway to the markets in Europe and North America.

The new offshore ice-resistant off-loading terminal is a structure with a total weight of over 11 thousand tons which consists of a base leg with an accommodation module, a mooring cargo handling system with a jib, and a helicopter pad.

- No doubt we have been witnessing a historical event,’ says Anatoly Barkov, Vice-President of LUKOIL, in a press-release.

- The unit itself is a unique engineering facility designed and assembled by Russian specialists. It is the first offshore ice-resistant oil terminal ever to be built in the world for year-round operation in a severe Arctic environment. By implementing this project, LUKOIL has made yet another statement proving that Russian oil engineers apply cutting-edge technologies to rise to the toughest challenges in hydrocarbon reserves development’, says Barkov.
From BarentsObserver

Climate Change and Wine

...Climate change is having an effect on vineyards all over the world, of course, not just those around Stellenbosch. Climatologists at the University of Oregon say their models show the amount of U.S. land suitable for growing wine grapes could be reduced by as much as 81 per cent by the end of the century if current trends continue. Australia's wine industry is in crisis, plagued by brutal drought, and the growing season too hot in recent years for many varieties to be harvested.

Climate change has meant good things for other wine-growing areas. English farmers are planting Champagne vines, and Austria's red wines, oenophiles say, are much improved by the hotter growing seasons of the past few years. British Columbia's climate is getting better and better for wine growing, and the warming is good for Nova Scotia's nascent industry, too.

But not for South Africa: It's getting too hot, and too wet (at the wrong times) in the key wine-growing region, and the flagship but fragile sauvignon blanc has been the first, but not the last, to suffer.

...The greatest predicted change was for southern Portugal (2.84 degrees), with the lowest predicted change expected in South Africa (0.88 degrees).
From the Globe and Mail

Friday, August 3, 2007

A Future Natural Gas Cartel

The April 9 meeting in Doha, Qatar, of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum attracted intense media scrutiny. Pundits speculated that the hidden agenda of the meeting, the first in two years, was to explore the possibility of developing a natural gas cartel along the lines of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Such a cartel would have immense financial and political clout in the global economy. Russian President Vladimir Putin first proposed the idea in 2002.

Last January Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei floated the concept of Iran and Russia creating a cartel. The following month, Putin and Qatari Emir Sheik Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani agreed to discuss the idea....

From Energy Daily

Arctic Wealth And Why Countries Are Jockeying Over The Roof Of The World

Global warming and, ironically, its main cause -- fossil fuels -- explain the intensifying squabble to claim rights over the Arctic seabed. Around a quarter of the world's oil reserves are locked up below the Arctic Ocean, according to the US Geological Survey (USGS).

The Arctic floor is also home to massive gas fields which are virtually unexploited, including those in the Barents Sea and in particular the Russian Shtokman field, which has reserves estimated at a staggering 3,200 billion cubic meters (113,006 billion cubic feet)....

From TerraDaily

James E. Hansen, PhD--Declaration of Stewardship

Grandmother refused to call anyone "Doctor" unless they could
set a child's broken arm.
(she may have been "influenced" by her sisters, the OB-GYN's,
her own degree was in English).

Here's James E. Hansen:

Declaration of Stewardship
Whereas the climate system is nearing tipping points with likely devastating
consequences for much of creation; whereas the responsibility of the United States for excess
CO2 in the air exceeds that of any other nation by more than a factor of three; whereas the rest of the world cannot be expected to take needed actions until the United States exercises
responsibility and leadership; whereas, some lawmakers and executives in the United States
appear to be unduly swayed by special interests; it therefore becomes important for citizens to be keenly aware of the position regarding global warming of all candidates for election.

Almost all candidates will express general agreement with the goal of minimizing dangerous human-made climate change, but it is necessary to assess intentions and loyalties. At Earthworks last week-end and at ReEnergizeIowa activity this weekend, I argue that every candidate in 2008 should be asked whether they will sign onto each of the three items in the
“Declaration of Stewardship” below. The first two items relate directly to the two essential
actions described in “Old King Coal II”
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/distro_OldKingCoalII_70730.pdf

and “How Can We Avoid Dangerous Human-Made Interference with Climate”
http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/0706/0706.3720.pdf
i.e., (1) phase-out of coal use except at power plants where CO2 is captured and sequestered, and (2) a modest but slowly growing price on carbon emissions.

I will not repeat the rationale here. Some people argue that a large carbon tax is needed.
However, removal of fossil fuel subsidies and supply constraints may go a long way. Certainty
of a rising price is probably most important for driving innovation. Amory Lovins argues that no
carbon tax or cap is needed. I do not agree with that, but I do agree that the barriers to efficiency (e.g., utilities making more money if they sell more energy) must be removed. The third item in the declaration includes that matter.

As always, criticisms and suggestions are welcome. I think that there should be no more
than three items in the list and that the present ones are essentially the right ones. The actions
needed to stabilize climate and preserve creation are reasonably clear. There are also the two
‘tweaks’ discussed in Old King Coal II, but these ‘tweaks’ should not be controversial; thus it seems unnecessary to ask candidates their positions thereon.

Declaration of Stewardship for the Earth and all Creation
1. Moratorium on Dirty Coal

I will support a moratorium on coal-fired power plants that do not capture and
sequester CO2.

2. Price on Carbon Emissions
I will support a fair, gradually rising, price on carbon emissions, reflecting costs to the environment. Mechanisms to adjust price should be apolitical and economically sound.

3. Energy Efficiency & Conservation Incentives
I will support measures to improve energy efficiency, e.g., rewarding utilities and
others based on energy and carbon efficiencies, rather than on the amount of energy sold.

Climate Change, Hurricanes and Insurance

If you’re going to live next to a levee in a hurricane zone, either get insurance that includes a flood provision, or, if you cannot find an insurance company that will include such provision, DON’T LIVE NEXT TO A LEVEE IN A HURRICANE ZONE. What’s so hard about that? Honestly, people, it’s all about choices and being informed.
Comment by
Of course it's "Predictable." - August 3, 2007 at 11:30 am

Comment at the WSJ.com Law Blog on this Post:
Katrina Flood Victims Lose Insurance Appeal

Market Commentary--BOHICA

DJIA down 228

Belarus asks Chávez for help on gas debt

Belarus has turned to Venezuela to help pay back a $456m debt to Russia for gas supplies after Moscow threatened to halve its gas deliveries, Alexander Lukashenko, Belarusan president, said on Thursday....

Belarusan ministers have been in Caracas and several “strategic” industrial agreements reached. These include joint ventures in energy, a plan to develop a gas pipeline for Venezuela and a $500m joint investment fund.

Agencies have also reported that Mr Chávez intends to buy up to $1bn in arms from Belarus.

From the Financial Times

Belarus and Venezuela share " absolutely identical" views on international affairs, which "is a reliable basis for close cooperation and mutual support in the international arena," Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko said in Minsk on Friday.


From data.minsk

Manipulation of Oil Markets

Tip of the iceberg:
Marathon to Pay $1M Fine in CFTC Case

Marathon Oil Corp. will pay a $1 million fine to settle allegations that it tried to manipulate the price it paid for crude oil in late 2003 to help boost profits, federal regulators said Wednesday.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission said Houston-based Marathon tried to influence the price of crude imported to Cushing, Okla., in November 2003. The case was the agency's first involving charges of attempted price manipulation of oil since 1979....

From Forbes

Hurricane News

Margie Kieper is filling in at Dr. Jeff Masters Wunder Blog.
I checked in to see if she had any comments on the revised Colorado State forecast released today.

Just this: "The Colorado State Univeristy forecast will be out shortly and numbers have been reduced from 17/8/4 to 15/8/4."

She ended with
"In other words, there is no tropical activity of note in the North Atlantic, so relax and enjoy the weekend."

More interesting was this:
...The wolf purchased an ACME Do-It-Yourself Hurricane Kit from his friend Wiley E, and generated a storm surge that washed away the brick house and the three pigs with it.
a) the three little pigs didn't have a hurricane plan
b) the three little pigs didn't evacuate
c) don't build for wind in a surge zone

Every year now, we see news articles about coastal surveys, that seem to indicate a lot of people living on the coast aren't ready for hurricane season. Whether that is the case or not, one of the things from this year's survey noted was, "One out of three (34%) do not know if their home is located in an evacuation zone." Well there are a lot of things that remain to be fixed or improved regards hurricane preparation on the coast, but this is one that can be taken care of!


And that's the weather, back to you Skippy.

Journalists I Respect: Inner City Press; Your Go-to for U.N. Carbon Offsets News

How's this "About Us" grab you:

Inner City Press, headquartered in the South Bronx of New York City, engages in investigations and journalism regarding human rights, transparency, corporate accountability, community reinvestment, predatory lending, environmental justice, fair housing, social exclusion and related topics. Inner City Press covers (and where applicable is accredited media at) the United Nations, the U.S. Federal Reserve Board, banking and insurance regulatory agencies, the Federal Communications Commission, and various courts.

Or this:

This web site provides information, resources and reporting on these and other issues, including creative writing and investigative journalism, as a successor to ICP’s initial newspaper publication.

ICP has published a (double) book on the topic of predatory lending. The Pittsburgh City Paper of Dec. 11, 2003, says that the "novel
Predatory Bender: A Story of Subprime Finance
may, in fact, be the first great American lending malfeasance novel."

Click here for that review; click here for sample chapters, an interactive map, and ordering information. Click here for a more colloquial presentation, in question and answer format.


Their juxtaposition of investigative financial journalism and local news just tickles me:

7/30/07 --
Bank Beat: Challenge to Royal Bank of Scotland / Santander / Fortis application for ABN Amro.
CRA: How many fair lending referrals?
Will Federal Reserve take note of Santander's dealings with sanctioned Sepah?
UN - Global: UN Mulls Banning Bloggers, Leaked Minutes Reveal, Fearing Coverage Not Easily Controlled.
Enviro: Wicheta toxins, Belarus' gas bill.
Bronx: Tattoo parlor opens, bike shop shuts down.

Sorry about the long intro. but I love these guys. Here's the carbon offset story:

UN's Climate Change Gurus Disagree on Cap and Trade in Debate that is Off-set for $2500

UNITED NATIONS, August 1 -- A split emerged Wednesday between two of UN-world's big guns on climate change, on the relative merits of carbon trading or taxation.

Tuesday, Jeffrey Sachs came down on the side of taxing carbon and subsidizing its sequestration. His comments were in line with doubts expressed by Joseph Stiglitz, who said that the "reason that I argue for a carbon tax is it's very difficult to decide on the allocation of emissions rights." In essence, corporations like Duke Energy, given emission rights, are free to sell any they don't use, and charge consumers for what they do use. Perhaps it's no surprise that the CEO of Duke Energy favors such a scheme: it's "heads I win, tails you lose." Click here for yesterday's story.

Yvo de Boer on Wednesday said that "business wants long-term certainty." In response to Inner City Press questioning of emissions trading, de Boer said, "I am skeptical on the notion of carbon taxation. I think it will take a long time to agree to and even longer to decide to give the tax proceeds to the United Nations to address climate change." Video here, from Minute 21:15 to 26:02.

Read the whole thing.

Here's ICP's home.

A Shi'a-Sunni War of International Dimension Looms Ahead

For the last few weeks the oil markets have seemed strange. I've felt out of it, without knowing why. A couple days ago I left a comment at the Energy Roundup:

"Mr. Brown, I think Matt Chambers included that quote for a reason.
There is something going on in the pricing external to or in addition to supply/demand.
I’m not referring to the backwardation that has Dec. 2012 8% cheaper than the front month, there’s something going on front month and spot.
I’ve no clue what,
just watching."

I still am at a loss but thought this story from the Iran Press Service was worth bookmarking:

A very dangerous fratricide war that can enflame the whole of the Muslim world may take place if the Saudi Arabia’s authorities do not oblige the country’s religious instances to immediately withdraw fatwas by Wahabbi muftis ordering the destruction of all Shi’a mosques and holly places in Iraq.
“Grand Mufti of Saudi Arabia and some other leading Wahhabi muftis have reportedly endorsed a fatwa allowing for the destruction of Shi’ite holy shrines of Imam Hoseyn (Shi’a’s third and most revered imam) and his brother hazrat Abbas in Karbala, of their sister hazrat Zeinab in Damascus, Syria, as well as Imam Ali, (the first Imam of Sh’ia Muslims), in Najaf, Iraq”, both the official news agency IRNA and the English-language newspaper "Iran Daily", published by IRNA, reported on Sunday 22 July 2007.

In the decree first released before the second attack on Samarra shrines, Wahhabis are asked to destroy all signs of "polytheism" in Iraqi cities, an implicit reference to the Shi’ite shrines, Iran Daily further reported. "The shrine of (Imam) Hoseyn in Karbala, as one of the main symbols of Shi’ites, should be destroyed," the decree said.

Iranian religious circles reaction to the fatwa was crushing and ferocious, describing the Wahabis as “terrorists”, “puppets of Americans and Israelis”, in an obvious effort not to attack directly the Saudi authorities.

Iranian Grand Ayatollah Lotfollah Safi Golpayegani, one of Shiite sources of jurisprudence in the Holy city of Qom strongly denounced a religious decree issued by some Saudi Mufties (religious figures) to destroy Shi’ate holy sites.

Also, Ayatollah Nasser Makarem Shirazi and Ayatollah Hoseyn Nouri Hamedani said in separate statements that the Saudi government is responsible for stopping the extremist muftis from waging propaganda campaign against the Infallible Household of Prophet Mohammad.

“Saudi Arabia has unfortunately been turned into a school for nurturing terrorism and supporting the terrorists, promoting an inauthentic version of Islam, and this recent verdict issued by Saudi terrorism worshiper Mufties is strongly denounced", IRNA quoted a communiqué issued by Ayatollah Golpayegani's Office.

"The alert Muslims of the world, prominent Islamic World Alims, scientific and university societies, elites, and statesmen of the important Islamic countries should know that the dark minded, deviated Wahhabi sect has today after a whole century of hatching anti-Islamic plots, got weaker than ever before, and more ill-famed in the eyed of the world Muslims, which is the reason why it has begun killing, massacring, destroying, and committing all types of other corrupt behaviors", Safi Golpayegani has in the communiqué reiterated.

He adds, "The brutal acts committed by this corrupt clan has led to the creation of a very negative image of Islam and the world Muslims in the eyes of the world nations, horrifying and intimidating the innocent human beings, while the dear Islam is the religion of peace, brotherhood, and all-encompassing love of God for His entire creatures"....

I haven't seen anything in the U.S. media about the Saudi Fatwas so I thought I'd put it up.

Another story which got more play:

Expect More Damage from US Kaleidoscopic Diplomacy

The proposed new $70 billion US military aid and sale in the Middle East gigantically enforces the ideological perspectives and policies of decision-makers in Washington without reckoning with Middle East realities -- and will only make the Middle East problems that much more difficult to resolve, says Rami Khouri.


BEIRUT -- The riddle of American foreign policy in the Middle East this week became even more puzzling, following the announcement of major new military aid and sales packages to Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and smaller Arab countries. The totals will top $70 billion over the coming ten years. The United States justifies this as part of its policy of fighting radicalism and terrorism, supporting moderates, and promoting an Arab-Israeli peace process.

It might also help the Man on the Moon learn to make really fine New York-style cheesecake....

I've no Idea what that last line means. The story is from Middle East Online.

Just to mix it up a bit more, here's a story from the Middle East Times a week-and-a-half ago:


Reports of a third US carrier task force - with the USS Nimitz - said to be heading for the Gulf region this week now places a total of about 300 carrier-based fighter jets within striking range of Iran.

"The situation is likely to get worse before it gets better," writes Joshua Landis, co-director of the Center for Peace Studies at the University of Oklahoma, publisher of the SyriaComment blog, who is currently visiting Syria. The next few months "will be a waiting game and the hatches have all been battened down," writes Landis.

Damascus and Tehran are bound by a mutual defense pact and an attack on Iran by the United States is likely to bring Syria into the fray. An Iranian opposition figure reports that an important arms deal was struck between Iran and Syria following the visit of Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to Damascus last week in which Iran will fund Syria's military about $1 billion toward arms procurement.


On a more optimistic note, this from the Hindustan Times:

USS Nimitz to return next month

It might drive the Left round the bend, but nuclear-powered super-carrier USS Nimitz is returning to Indian waters with a vengeance very soon.

The US is moving a flotilla of warships, led by Nimitz, to the Bay of Bengal to take part in the Indo-US joint naval exercises 'Malabar 07' from September 4-9. The American armada includes aircraft carrier USS Kitty Hawk, nuclear-powered attack submarine USS Chicago, guided missile cruiser USS Princeton and five other warships.

Aircraft carrier INS Viraat will lead the Indian ships that include Rajput class destroyers INS Ranvijay, INS Ranjit and guided missile frigate INS Brahmaputra. The IAF will field its maritime Jaguar fighters and the Navy its Tu-142 long-range reconnaissance aircraft. Featuring three aircraft carriers, the Navy does not deny that the complexity of the exercise will be greater than ever before.

The Left is, however, breathing fire.

And from Reuters:

New U.S. carrier in Gulf region as force reduced

The U.S. Navy, scaling back its force in the Gulf, said on Wednesday it had sent a fresh aircraft carrier to the region to replace two carriers deployed there since early this year amid tension with Iran.

It said the USS Enterprise Carrier Strike Group, which includes accompanying destroyers and a submarine, was in the Red Sea and heading for the Gulf and the wider Gulf region.

Lt. John Gay of the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet headquartered in Bahrain said the two other carrier groups, headed by the USS Stennis and the USS Nimitz, had moved out of the area in July and were now in the Pacific.

Not sure what it means, or if it matters to oil prices. Just thought I should point it all out.

Thursday, August 2, 2007

California-Powerful Farmers Negotiate Water Deal

The U.S. government appears poised to turn over the rights to billions of gallons of water to a politically connected group of farmers in California, where most people are being asked to conserve.

Landowners in the Westlands Water District would gain the rights to 1 million acre feet of water under a proposed settlement federal regulators are likely to present Wednesday. An acre foot translates to the amount needed to cover one acre with a foot of water.

That's 15 percent of the federally controlled water in California, which would make it the largest grant to irrigators since the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation was created in 1903, agency officials said....

From the Guardian

General Electric is not alone in facing challenges to its reputation based on past activities.

That's the first paragraph in Ethical Corporation's blog post titled

"Big brands may be tarnished by past environmental legacies"

The post continues
"The downside to going green is reputational vulnerability for the companies concerned. This publication recently had a series of exchanges with a member of GE's press office concerning our July cover story.

The officer in question felt it was unfair, yet could not dispute a single fact in the article. While some of the US press have reported well on the environmental legacies of brands now seeking environmental credentials (often, it must be said after considerable investments, such as in GE's case), many have not written much about the impact of decades old pollution.

From Ethical Corporation (that link above is worth a read)

Wells Fargo Offers Electricity Price Hedging, Renewable Energy Credits for Middle Market Companies

...The hedging program - believed to be the first offered by a major U.S. bank to middle market companies - can benefit companies spending at least $1 million annually on electricity and also help them purchase environmental management products, including renewable energy credits, to reduce their carbon footprint and offset greenhouse gas emissions.

“As electricity costs continue their long-term upward trend, managing power costs can often mean the difference between profit and loss for many small and medium-sized companies,” said Anil Suri, managing director in Wells Fargo’s Financial Products Group. “All middle market companies depend on having reliable, affordable power, but many do not have in-house experts or the time to effectively manage electricity market risk. We now offer that increasingly vital service using the same disciplined approach Wells Fargo brings to its customers in other areas of financial risk management every day.” Press Release

I hope it works better for the customers than this example of peddling sophisticated instruments to unsophisticated clients:

Italian Shopkeepers Blame Banks for Derivative Losses

Piera Levo and her husband, who run a 15-employee plumbing supply company in northeastern Italy, bought ``insurance'' against interest rate increases from UniCredit SpA in 2000.

Six years later, they paid 85,000 euros ($117,000) to extricate themselves from a derivative known as an interest-rate swap that is normally sold to large companies and fund managers. Derivatives are contracts whose value is based on that of another security, index or commodity, or linked to events such as changes in interest rates.

``I had no idea what I was getting into,'' Levo said. ``I don't even play slot machines. I would never sit down to play blackjack against Alessandro Profumo,'' chief executive officer of UniCredit, Italy's biggest lender....

From Bloomberg

Jan Wenner Eco-Hypocrite; Rolling Stone, Right on Ethanol

I thought this was an insightful quote ..."Lending out the jet is a huge part of Jann's starfucking," says an insider. "It's half the reason he has the plane." and included it in our last post on Mr. Wenner.

This seemed downright silly "And Wenner isn't much better when he's in town, where he has a chauffeured Mercedes to shuttle him the 15 blocks or so between his apartment and his office. Even more wasteful is his lunch routine: a private chef prepares his meal at home, then staffers drive it down to the office, don black-and-white uniforms, and serve it to him on his personal china. "It's like a scene from Gosford Park,"...
but no worse than Chinese takeout.

Today ecotality had this headline: Rolling Stone says Ethanol is a “Scam.”
and goes on to quote the mag after this intro:

Rolling Stone magazine is making more sense then the entire U.S. Congress* with an article urging Americans to rethink the Congress’ headlong rush to boost production and use of corn-based ethanol. In a must-read article headlined Ethanol Scam: Ethanol Hurts the Environment And Is One of America’s Biggest Political Boondoggles, RS says…

The great danger of confronting peak oil and global warming isn’t that we will sit on our collective asses and do nothing while civilization collapses, but that we will plunge after “solutions” that will make our problems even worse. Like believing we can replace gasoline with ethanol, the much-hyped biofuel that we make from corn.

Ethanol, of course, is nothing new. American refiners will produce nearly 6 billion gallons of corn ethanol this year, mostly for use as a gasoline additive to make engines burn cleaner. But in June, the Senate all but announced that America’s future is going to be powered by biofuels, mandating the production of 36 billion gallons of ethanol by 2022. According to ethanol boosters, this is the beginning of a much larger revolution that could entirely replace our 21-million-barrel-a-day oil addiction. Midwest farmers will get rich, the air will be cleaner, the planet will be cooler, and, best of all, we can tell those greedy sheiks to fuck off. As the king of ethanol hype, Sen. Chuck Grassley of Iowa, put it recently, “Everything about ethanol is good, good, good.”

This is not just hype — it’s dangerous, delusional bullshit. Ethanol doesn’t burn cleaner than gasoline, nor is it cheaper. Our current ethanol production represents only 3.5 percent of our gasoline consumption — yet it consumes twenty percent of the entire U.S. corn crop, causing the price of corn to double in the last two years and raising the threat of hunger in the Third World. And the increasing acreage devoted to corn for ethanol means less land for other staple crops, giving farmers in South America an incentive to carve fields out of tropical forests that help to cool the planet and stave off global warming.

HT: ecotality


Fatty Knut Put on Strict Diet

Knut, the world's most famous polar bear, is off the scales after eating too many snacks and has been put on a diet. The Berlin Zoo said Knut's handlers have been told to stop feeding him extra rations of croissant, fish and meat.

"Knut has become noticeably round," zoo vet Andreas Ochs said. "So we shall be feeding him restrictively."

From Der Spiegel

Lieberman-Warner: America's Climate Security Act

They held their 10:30 press conference and released what's titled "Annotated Table of Contents".

From the press release:

"The document released today spells out a mandatory, market-based cap-and-trade program that would cover 80 percent of US greenhouse gas emissions and that would reduce those emissions to current levels by 2012, to 10 percent below current levels by 2020, and to 70 percent below current levels by 2050. The document describes a robust set of measures to sustain US economic growth, protect American jobs, and ensure international participation in emissions reductions."

Their proposal sets the Administrator of the EPA up as the national Gas Czar, delegating that congressional role. The interesting stuff starts on page seven of the seventeen page PDF.

Senator Boxer, Chair of the EPW committee said:

“The Lieberman Warner bill will be the fifth economy-wide Senate proposal, and in addition, there are several sector-by-sector proposals, demonstrating that an increasing number of U.S. Senators want to address this issue now.”

“When I took the gavel of the Environment and Public Works Committee, I pledged to focus on global warming and on bringing bipartisanship back to the committee. With the Lieberman-Warner bipartisan proposal, those goals have been met, and we now plan to pass legislation through the committee before the end of the year. This proposal has taken good ideas from a variety of bills, and will be an excellent starting point for the committee.”

Senator Inhofe, Ranking member titled his comments:

LIEBERMAN-WARNER CLIMATE BILL FAILS SENATE TEST

And went on to say:

...CO2 cap-and-trade schemes were exposed by a recent CBO study as creating massive wealth redistribution from the poor and working class to wealthier Americans. Further, according to a MIT study released earlier this year, cap-and-trade legislation introduced earlier in the Senate this year by Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Senator Boxer (D-CA) would cost energy sector consumers an amount equal to $4,500 per American family of four. The same study found a bill sponsored by Senator Lieberman and Senator McCain (R-AZ) would cost consumers $3,500 per family of four. And a new EPA analysis shows the Lieberman – McCain bill would cost up to half a trillion dollars by 2030 and $1.3 trillion by 2050 – and that was based on assumptions designed to low-ball the number, begging the question of how high the real figure would be.

I get a kick out of the EPW homepage.

The Democrat blog button (on the left) says
"Act Now to Stop Global Warming".

The Republican blog button (on the right) says
"ENTER the MINORITY BLOG".

And that boys and girls is how you win in politics


No Oil Law: Iraqi Parliment Vacationing

I'll be alone each and every night
While you're away, don't forget to write

Bye-bye, so long, farewell
Bye-bye, so long

See you in September
See you when the summer's through
Here we are (bye, baby, goodbye)
Saying goodbye at the station (bye, baby, goodbye)
Summer vacation (bye, baby bye, baby)
Is taking you away (bye, baby, goodbye)

Have a good time but remember
There is danger in the summer moon above
Will I see you in September
Or lose you to a summer love
(counting the days 'til I'll be with you)
(counting the hours and the minutes, too)

Bye, baby, goodbye
Bye, baby, goodbye
Bye, baby, goodbye (bye-bye, so long, farewell)
Bye, baby, goodbye (bye-bye, so long)
....

The Happenings

U.N. climate chief skeptical about global carbon tax

UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) - A top U.N. climate change official voiced doubt on Wednesday about a global tax on carbon, but said national taxes were possible and laws to cap global warming emissions were better for business.

"I personally am skeptical on the notion of global carbon taxes," said Yvo de Boer, who heads the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change.

International agreement on such a tax would take a long time, de Boer said, and it might take even longer to get the tax proceeds to the United Nations to deal with global warming....

From Reuters

Ethanol producers fire back in food vs. fuel debate

..."We're here today to pop the popcorn propaganda bubble," said Monte Shaw, executive director of the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association.

Standing in front of 11 large plastic bags containing 38.5 pounds (17.5 kilograms) of popcorn, Shaw claimed a person could buy that amount directly from a farmer for US$5 (€3.65). He pointed to a bag of movie theater popcorn on a nearby table and said it costs the consumer just as much, if not more.

Some food companies argue that escalating corn prices, sparked by the increasing demand for ethanol, has forced them to raise prices for items containing corn, including meat and dairy products from animals that are fed the grain. It has been dubbed the "food-versus-fuel debate."

When it comes to popcorn, Shaw said, recent claims that movie-goers will pay 25 cents (18 euro cents) more per bag of popcorn because of the ethanol demand is ridiculous.

The US$5 (€3.65) bucket of movie popcorn, he said, contains just .15 pounds (.07 kilograms) of corn before popping. The bucket contained slightly more than a penny (less than a euro cent) of popcorn, he said. Higher corn prices means the moviegoer is getting about 2 cents (1 euro cent) of popcorn per bucket, he said.

From the IHT

UBS to launch new product for commodities

UBS will announce on Tuesday the launch of a commodities investment product that differs from the long-only, passive indices dominating the industry, providing non-specialist investors with sophisticated trading strategies that benefit from both rising and falling commodity prices.

The UBS Commodities Portfolio Algorithmic Strategy System aims to fill a gap in the market between the long-only passive indices, such as the popular S&P GSCI – which has about $70bn tracking it – and services provided by commodities trading advisers and hedge funds.

...Traditional commodities vehicles bet only on higher prices and usually roll over their positions every month, selling the front-month contract and buying the following contract.

The strategy results in losses when prices fall from one month to the next or during a bear market.

From the Financial Times

Wednesday, August 1, 2007

Funniest Comment on WSJ/News (off-topic)

And wouldn't you know it comes from a commenter (Dado) at the Gawker:

"The Onion didn't change that much when Kolb took over.
Whatevs"


Our Climateer Investing DJNWS Line of the Day award goes to Dado
(commenter since 2006, presentation of this award does not imply that the views expressed by the commenter reflect the views of the management of Climateer Investing, your mileage will vary, possible side effects may include incontinence)

First runnerup, also commenting at Gawker, wouldn't cha know, Spit:

"Dado-- the problem is the way the media is today, the only thing left after the top-tier papers crumble is... Gawker. Cool and everything, but not quite as strong on the stock options backdating beat, for example."

Naked Short Selling

The Ugly Underbelly of the Market.


If you remember:
Short sellers: The good, the bad and the ugly
from MarketWatch.

Lay blames Enron failure on attack of short-sellers
from the IHT.

Skilling: Short sellers to blame

from the Houston Chronicle's "Enron: TrialWatch"

and finally:
Lay's Son Sold Enron Short
from CFO.com







I am so, so, so sorry.

Weather Derivatives-"Hedge Funds Pluck Money From Air in $19 Billion Weather Gamble"

Credit Suisse Group trader Patrick Ayash rarely reads earnings estimates and just skims news about inflation. One thing he never misses: the daily weather report.

Ayash, 31, is part of an army of mathematicians, hedge-fund whizzes and programmers pouring into the $19 billion market for weather futures, financial instruments tied to everything from storms over Kansas, an early frost in the Netherlands, or a frigid spring in New York.

...Enron Corp. sold the first weather derivative 10 years ago, agreeing to pay a utility $10,000 for each wintertime degree that was below normal. After a lull following the collapse of the Houston energy trader, the market is exploding. Trading in weather contracts has jumped 100-fold in the past four years, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange....

You may have picked up on our fascination with all things Enron. There are two reasons. First it was a really big fraud. Regular readers know we are suckers for a good fraud story.
Second, so much of the alt-energy, Kyoto politics, cap-and-trade etc., etc. has some tie to ENE.

From Bloomberg
Tandem or dual hat tips: WSJ.com's MarketBeat for pointing us to to Infectious Greed.
(I know it's on our blogroll, I hadn't gotten there yet, sorry)

Khosla, LS9 and Gasoline from Bacteria

The biofuel of the future could well be gasoline. That's the hope of one biotech startup that on Monday described for the first time how it is coaxing bacteria into producing hydrocarbons that could be processed into fuels like those made from petroleum.

LS9, a company based in San Carlos, CA, and founded by geneticist George Church, of Harvard Medical School, and plant biologist Chris Somerville, of Stanford University, had previously said that it was working on what it calls "renewable petroleum." But at a Society for Industrial Microbiology conference on Monday, the company began speaking more openly about what it has accomplished: it has genetically engineered various bacteria, including E. coli, to custom-produce hydrocarbon chains....

From MIT's Technology Review
khosla ventures

Biomass Resources Available in the United States

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has a nifty map of biomass resources.
Click here for full-size version.

HT: New Energy News

German wind energy industry sales grow by 39 pct

From Thompson via Forbes:
The German wind energy industry booked sales of 6.4 bln eur in 2006, up 39 pct from 4.6 bln eur in 2005, the German WindEnergy Association (BWE) and the machinery association VDMA said in a joint statement.


The brief article goes on to say the German domestic market is slowing down.

European automakers expected to miss carbon emission targets

Climateer Investing favors a carbon tax over cap-and-trade as a means to reduce the usage of transportation fuels in particular, carbon based energy in general.

However, the deepest argument against our position that we've received is a pretty good one:
With gasoline taxes seven times higher than America's why haven't there been any transformative technologies developed in Europe?

Our answer: I dunno, fair question.

Here's the story from the IHT:

Based on current trends, European automakers will be unable to meet their decade-old target of reducing carbon dioxide emissions 25 percent by next year, according to a report published Tuesday. The findings could strengthen the hand of regulators seeking to crack down on auto emissions.

...But according to a study by the International Council on Clean Transportation, based in Washington, carbon dioxide emission rates by automakers present in the EU market ranged between 142 grams and 238 grams per kilometer in 2006, with an industry average of 160 grams per kilometer. The group forecast that by next year, average emissions would decline to 155 grams of carbon dioxide per kilometer, 11 percent above the 140-gram target....

What this means to investors

Look for the higher emitters to acquire lower emitters in an attempt to lower their fleet average emissions.
Low IQ analysis by the Climateer team.

U.N. climate change meeting aims at rich countries

That's Reuters headline.

..."Because of reasons of past responsibility and better access to resources, the rich countries should take much bigger objectives than that 50 percent," he said. "They should be looking for around 75 percent cuts."

That responsibility could extend to financing cuts in emissions in other countries, said Stern, formerly head of the British government's economic service and now at the London School of Economics.

..."The rich world has to reduce emissions far more drastically than it has done so to date," said Sunita Narain, director of India's Center for Science and Environment. "The political leadership is very high on rhetoric but very low on real action when it comes to delivering the goods on climate change."
From Reuters

Here's another:

China Tells Paulson it's Poor and Poses no Threat

China on Tuesday deflected U.S. pressure for a faster rise in the yuan and bolder economic reforms by telling visiting Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson that it is still poor and poses no threat to anyone.

..."In making this contrast, you can understand -- who could China threaten? China still has areas as developmentally backward as Qinghai," Wu told Paulson while reporters were in the room.

"China still has 23 million people living in poverty. China's very goal in its development is so that its 1.3 billion people can eat their fill, dress warmly and live well. Who could we threaten? We don't have the ability. China does not and will never threaten anyone."

From Reuters

Israeli firm Solel contracts to build world's largest solar park in California

An Israeli company will build the world's largest solar energy park in Southern California's Mojave Desert to supply enough electricity to power 400,000 homes in central and northern California.

The massive $ 2 billion project was announced on July 25, following the signing of a 25- year contract between Israel's Solel Solar Systems and California's Pacific Gas and Electric public utility.

...When completed in 2011, following two years of construction, the solar park will stretch over 6,000 acres or ( 23 sq. km.), use 1.2 million mirrors and 317 miles of vacuum tubing to harness the power of the desert sun, and deliver 553 megawatts of clean energy.
From the Jerusalem Post

The Good, The Bad and the Biofuel

Biodiesel Plant in Minot Shelved
A plant to make biodiesel from canola has been shelved after an economic development group withdrew its offer to provide land. The decision comes after more than two years of planning and millions of dollars in design and engineering work....
From ForexTV

Panda Ethanol Withdraws Share Offering

Panda Ethanol Inc. announced July 10 that it has withdrawn its offer to issue $140 million aggregate principal amount of 6 percent convertible, redeemable senior notes.

Panda officials felt that current market conditions were not conducive to achieving a per-share valuation which reflects the long-term value of the common stock....
From GrainNet

Pacific Ethanol Director Sells Shares
Pacific Ethanol Inc. director Bill Jones has sold 50,000 shares of the renewable producer's stock, about $750,000 worth.
Jones, former California Secretary of State, sold the shares for $15 to $15.08, according to documents filed Monday with the Securities & Exchange Commission.
Jones, who helped found the company in Fresno, had detailed the stock sale as part of a prearranged trading plan.
From MSN

Company Seeking Investors for East Arkansas Biodiesel Plant
At least 36 people have already invested in planned soybean oil and biodiesel plant in east Arkansas.
The Natural Fuels plant is being planned for a 65-70 acre tract in the Corning Industrial Park. The plant is expected to cost up to $100 million and will provide a local market for soybeans. The plant will also extract oil, sell soybean meal and process biodiesel fuel.
Natural Fuels is seeking 200 investors to buy shares of $10,000 each
From KTHV (Little Rock)

Liberty Renewable Pitching Michigan Investors
A group working to build the state's largest ethanol plant is at the state Capitol today, pitching investment opportunities alongside an Indy race car that runs on the corn-based fuel.
The exhibit will be at the Capitol until 2 p.m.
Officials from Corunna-based Liberty Renewable Fuels LLC hope to raise $50 million to $100 million, largely from Michigan-based investors, to complete their $185.6 million ethanol plant under construction near Ithaca.
From the Lansing State Journal

Ethanol helps a small town bloom
These days, the smell of money is the slightly acrid scent of fermenting corn that occasionally wafts over town.
Here in Iowa, and across a growing swath of the U.S. Midwest, making ethanol has meant a second chance for a rural economy that lives and breathes corn.

"This town was dying a slow death," said Craig Brownlee, a third-generation corn farmer from Emmitsburg, located northwest of Des Moines. "We weren't making any money and we were living off crop subsidies. Now, people are spending money like they haven't in a long time. There's a buzz around town."
From the Globe and Mail via Scripps