From Marc to Market:
The US dollar is stronger against all the G10 currencies and most emerging market currencies today. The euro has approached $1.14, despite firmer than expected preliminary September PMI. Japan’s markets re-open tomorrow for the first time this week, and the market has taken the dollar to almost JPY158, around where it peaked before last weekend. Optimism about supply and talks has kept November WTI mostly consolidating today below $90 a barrel. Yet, interest rates are little changed.
The Trump-Xi summit is drawing much attention, but expectations seem relatively low. At most a short extension of the tariff truce may be seen but the current agreement doesn’t end until early November, so there is ostensibly no urgency. The central banks of Switzerland, Norway, and Sweden meet tomorrow. There has been a shift in recent days today a Norges Bank hike tomorrow. A week ago, the swaps market had a little less than a 50% chance of a hike discounted, and now it is a little more than a 50% chance....
....MUCH MORE
