It is hard/impossible to overstate just how important* the monsoon is.
From Reuters, May 15:
Monsoon rains are expected to hit India's southern coast on May 26, six days earlier than usual, the state-run weather office said on Friday, spurring hopes among farmers of early planting of crops such as rice, corn, soybean and sugarcane.The monsoon is likely to set in over the southern state of Kerala on May 26, with a margin of error of four days, the India Meteorological Department said in a statement.Typically, the monsoon ends across the country by mid-September and always begins in Kerala.The monsoon is essential to India's nearly $4 trillion economy, delivering almost 70% of the rainfall needed to water farms and replenish aquifers and reservoirs....
....MORE
*How important? June 2018:Complex chaotic systems are some of the toughest things for the human mind to understand and one of the biggest challenges for model makers. (another of the big challenges is model makers recognizing their own biases)
On a related subject, the current trend in supercomputer construction is to use a combination of CPUs and GPUs connected by superfast links which puts the Graphics Processing Unit manufacturers such as NVIDIA in an enviable position. Both the planned-to-be-fastest-in-the-world 'puter at Oak Ridge and the current 2nd fastest at ORNL use this approach as does the just upgraded Swiss machine (7th fastest)....
Also July 2009's "Naked girls and gold demand".
A failure of the rainy phase of the monsoon cycle combined with crop failures in any one of the world's breadbaskets, Australia, Brazil, Canada, USA, Ukraine would lead to higher prices if it lasted one year, malnutrition if the combination lasted two years and outright starvation if it got to three growing seasons.
On the other hand a rainy season that is too intense can kill thousands/tens of thousands across south Asia.
Ditto for the breadbaskets. From May 2019:
One of the Scariest Sentences In the English Language: Crop Progress Report Edition
The weekly crop progress report was released yesterday but first a quick diversion:
Spring field work continues to be hampered by cold, wet conditions
Corn planting is behind schedule in Minnesota, again
More rain to target flood-weary US Heartland this week, further delaying planting
Ohio Crop Progress: Rain continued to stall planting
Trump tweet may play to quick-growing corn switch as rain persists
I am so torn on this stuff.
The world can handle one year of crop failures in two of the major growing regions, think Ukraine, western Russia, U.S. Midwest, northeast China, Brazil, Australia.
If it stretches to two years in two regions simultaneously it's time to start thinking famine.
And famine is profitable for everyone but the people who need to eat.
Back to the Wikipedia entry:
In the spring of 1315, unusually heavy rain began in much of Europe.The story continues:
Throughout the spring and summer, it continued to rain and the temperature remained cool. These conditions caused widespread crop failures. The straw and hay for the animals could not be cured and there was no fodder for the livestock. The price of food began to rise. Food prices in England doubled between spring and midsummer. Salt, the only way to cure and preserve meat, was difficult to obtain because it could not be evaporated in the wet weather; it went from 30 shillings to 40 shillings.Some of the headlines introducing yesterday's USDA report:
Spring field work continues to be hampered by cold, wet conditions
Corn planting is behind schedule in Minnesota, again
More rain to target flood-weary US Heartland this week, further delaying planting
Ohio Crop Progress: Rain continued to stall planting
Trump tweet may play to quick-growing corn switch as rain persists
I am so torn on this stuff.
The world can handle one year of crop failures in two of the major growing regions, think Ukraine, western Russia, U.S. Midwest, northeast China, Brazil, Australia.
If it stretches to two years in two regions simultaneously it's time to start thinking famine.
And famine is profitable for everyone but the people who need to eat.
Back to the Wikipedia entry:
...The famine caused millions of deaths over an extended number of years and marked a clear end to the period of growth and prosperity from the 11th to the 13th centuries.
The Great Famine started with bad weather in spring 1315. Crop failures lasted through 1316 until the summer harvest in 1317, and Europe did not fully recover until 1322. The period was marked by extreme levels of crime, disease, mass death, and even cannibalism and infanticide. The crisis had consequences for the Church, state, European society, and for future calamities to follow in the 14th century....
