For folks who don't obsessively follow the politico-financial nexus the poll predicted Vice-president Harris ahead of former President Trump by three percentage points on November 2.
The final result was Trump 55.8% Harris 42.6%.
The Selzer poll was hideously wrong with a 16.2% miss.
From Semafor, November 10:
The Scoop
Gannett, the publishing chain that owns the Des Moines Register, has launched an investigation into the apparent leak of Ann Selzer’s bombshell Iowa poll, two people familiar with the matter confirmed to Semafor.
Selzer’s Iowa poll was publicly released by The Des Moines Register/Mediacom on the evening of Nov. 2, making nationwide news and giving Democrats what would turn out to be false hope by showing Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by three points in the state. (Trump ended up winning Iowa by 13 points.)
But roughly 45 minutes prior to the poll’s public release, a stray tweet predicted the poll’s findings. Its author said that Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, a Duke University alumnus, had mentioned the not-yet-released poll during a Duke Democrats meeting that day. (A spokesperson for Pritzker did not respond to an inquiry about the apparent leak.)
The Des Moines Register is legendarily careful with Selzer’s polls, which shape perceptions of crucial early caucuses in both parties, though it also now coordinates with Gannett flagship USA Today on high-profile national news.
Now, Gannett is investigating how Pritzker and possibly other political actors could have learned of the poll early, and is reviewing employees’ emails, one of the sources said....
....MUCH MORE
UPDATED—Iowa Pollster Ann Selzer Destroyed The Dreams (and more importantly the finances) Of Renewable Energy Investors (FSLR)
Original post:
On October 30 we posted "First Solar Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript (FSLR)" with the intro line "It sounds like dead money for at least a quarter." Straight analysis in ten words informed by a lifetime at the market.
So far so good.
On November 2 the Des Moines Register published "Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day. Here's how" about which the BBC gushed:
A new poll of voters in Iowa suggests that Kamala Harris is leading with 47% over Donald Trump's 44%.The survey was released by the highly regarded pollster Ann Selzer, who regularly carries out surveys for the Des Moines Register newspaper....MarketWatch did not refer to the "highly regarded pollster", instead going with "Trump election odds tumble on betting markets after Iowa poll shows Harris lead".The stock which had traded as low as $183.68 on October 30 (closing at $197.50), hit $221.20 on November 4.This morning's MarketWatch story is headlined "Renewable-energy stocks tank after Trump wins White House"The stock is trading at $183.20 down $32.69 (-15.14%).
