From Harvard Business School's Working Knowledge, October 24:
Chinese companies have been evading US tariffs by shipping goods through Vietnam, but not to the degree that the headlines would suggest. Ebehi Iyoha and Jaya Wen dig into trade microdata to illustrate Vietnam's strategic importance and why American policymakers should take note.
Exports from Vietnam to the United States have grown significantly since America’s trade war with China began in 2018. At the same time, Vietnam has been importing more Chinese goods. This has led many to question: is “Made in Vietnam” really “Made in China"?
Not as much as the public would think, say Ebehi Iyoha and Jaya Wen, assistant professors at Harvard Business School. By one broad measure of products, about 16 percent of US exports from Vietnam—or $15.5 billion—were estimated to be rerouted Chinese products in 2021. But that is not entirely accurate, the researchers found.
Trade “microdata” from firms’ transactions suggests that a significant portion of the imported Chinese goods added value to Vietnam’s economy through new investments that resulted in jobs and increased production. These products weren’t merely relabeled in Vietnam to evade tariffs—the true definition of rerouting, according to their recent working paper “Exports in Disguise: Trade Rerouting during the US-China Trade War?”
The added value of imports only becomes clear by looking at trade data at the company level. On that basis, just 1.8 percent, or $1.7 billion, of goods were likely to have been rerouted in 2021.
Wen and Iyoha coauthored the paper with Duke University Professor Edmund J. Malesky; Sung-Ju Wu, a research fellow at the University of Nottingham in the UK; and Bo Feng, a predoctoral fellow at HBS.
Magnets for rerouting companies
Iyoha, who long observed politically charged trade disputes involving rice imports in her native Nigeria, found wide variation in rerouting across products in Vietnam. Based on company data, these goods are most likely to be rerouted.
Chinese-owned rerouters gain ground
The researchers found that rerouting increased along with the growth of companies sending their products to Americans from Vietnam. Chinese-owned firms that rerouted their goods through Vietnam gained competitive advantage....
....MUCH MORE
- "Vietnam becoming a chip-making powerhouse"
- "The Winners From U.S.-China Decoupling"
- "Apple manufacturers moved from China to Vietnam. Now they’re desperate for workers"
- Nvidia Sees Vietnam as Potential Second Home, Reports Say
Jeez, back in 2019 we were posting - Vietnam Rising: "US-China trade war pushing Vietnam’s manufacturing industry to capacity"
And 2023 - "Vietnam becomes vital link in supply chain as business pivots from China"
And - "A tiger economy starts to roar in Vietnam" (except for the rare earth industry corruption)
And many more.
Not really related except as to mindset/practical use of ones brain:
Điện Biên Phủ Seventy Years On—It's Good To Understand Logistics
