Friday, September 27, 2024

Capital Markets: "Yen Surges After New LDP Leader Picked, while the Greenback Consolidates"

While the yen strengthens, futures on the Nikkei 225 stock index are down 1160 points (2.94%), though up 450 points from their lows.

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

Overview: Japan's LDP leadership selection has not been the dragged-out affair that many thought likely with a record nine candidate vying for the post. It turns out that the economy may have been less important than foreign affairs and the threat posed by China. Shigeru Ishiba is strong nationalist, who reports indicate own shares in Nippon Steel, whose bid for US steel has faced domestic opposition in the US on seemingly nationalist, rather than economic grounds. The yen reversed its initial weakness and reached a new high for the week. More broadly, the dollar is trading firmer against the G10 currencies, but the yen and Swiss franc. Emerging market currencies are mixed. The Chinese yuan is up about 0.5% this week. Here in Q3, the yuan has risen in all but three weeks. It has only fallen in one week since the end of July. The Mexican peso and Taiwanese dollar lead the emerging market currencies today, while central European currencies are laggards.

China's CSI 300 continued to rally. Its 4.5% gain today bring the weekly advance to 15.7%. Japanese shares also rallied. The Nikkei gained 2.3% for a 7.2% gain on the week. Europe's Stoxx 600 is about marginally and has risen by almost 2.5% this week. US index futures are trading a little softer. The S&P 500 is up about 0.75% this week and the NASDAQ is up about 1.35%. European 10-year yields are off 3-5 bp today and the peripheral premium, including France, are narrower. The 10-year US Treasury yield is off a little more than a basis point near 3.78%, which is about three basis points higher than a week ago. Gold is softer but consolidating after reaching a new record yesterday. November WTI is also consolidating. It is holding above $67 but was sold when it poked above $68...

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